河马的CC商业实战 · 出品

河马观澜

今 日 深 读

01

布罗克曼专访:Astra 首个 10 万卡模型、十亿用户赌注与「防守者窗口」

An Interview with OpenAI President Greg Brockman About Astra and Alignment

Stratechery · Ben Thompson · 中英对照 · 约 25 分钟

Astra 发布后 OpenAI 总裁布罗克曼的第一个长访谈,Ben Thompson 的问题相当锋利。硬核信息密集:Astra 是 OpenAI 第一次在超过 10 万张 GPU 上完成的训练;「计算机操作」终于跨过门槛,他称之为替代连接器时代的「万能连接器」;为应对网络攻防能力扩散,OpenAI 抽调 25% 生产工程师、直接用 Astra 攻击自己的系统找漏洞。Thompson 当面逼问 Hugging Face 事件「你们之前为什么不认真对待安全」,布罗克曼的回应(承认防守方失去了时间)是全文最有张力的段落。全文翻译,共八节。

开始阅读 →

02

大模型高歌猛进,AI 应用却活力不足了

大模型高歌猛进,但AI应用却活力不足了

硅碳变量(虎嗅转载) · 胡一刀 · 中文 · 约 10 分钟

与深读 01 恰好构成一枚硬币的两面:布罗克曼在上面讲「一个 AGI 统一一切」,这篇文章用数据讲统一之后的代价——应用层的空间正在被模型层碾平。信息密度很高:MiniMax 半年报增长引擎从 C 端切到 B 端(企业服务占 63.4%);Midjourney 在 a16z 百强榜从第 8 跌到第 43;上半年 5100 亿美元创投里 3500 亿流向 AI,OpenAI 与 Anthropic 两家拿走 2170 亿;中国大模型赛道融资 1598 亿元占 AI 总融资过半。投资人的一句话最冷:「我们现在已经完全不看搞 AI 应用创业的了。」

开始阅读 →

03

本周展望:中美 CPI 背靠背,燧原上市倒计时,苹果首款折叠屏

2026 年 9 月 7 日-13 日财经日历与市场展望综合

公开市场信息综合(央广网、东方财富等) · 河马观澜整理 · 中文 · 约 5 分钟

上周以「放量分歧」收尾,本周进入数据与事件的超级周:周一外储+5000 亿买断式逆回购,周二贸易数据,周三中国 CPI/PPI,周四欧央行决议+美国 PPI+苹果秋发,周五美国 8 月 CPI——这是 9 月 15-16 日美联储议息前最后一个重磅通胀数据。产业侧,燧原科技(688801)挂牌进入倒计时,小米、华为、苹果一周内密集开发布会。

开始阅读 →

快 览

  1. 黄仁勋:这场 AI 革命最坏的结果,就是你没用它(虎嗅)—— 老黄最新的布道口径,配本期深读 01 里 OpenAI 对英伟达的「深情表白」一起看。
  2. 生成式 AI 的中局范式:从 Harness 到 Experience Loop(虎嗅)—— 一套公式看懂行业转向:AI 系统 = 模型 + 持久 Runtime + 环境 + 记忆 + 验证 + 学习回路。
  3. 太空算力突然开始密集融资,资本到底在押什么?(虎嗅)—— 地面算力越紧,天上的故事越热。
  4. 摩尔、沐曦、壁仞、天数,谁过得最好?(虎嗅)—— 燧原上市倒计时之际,国产 GPU 四小龙众生相。
  5. AI 最隐蔽的风险:未必是抢走你的工作,而是先统一你的思考(虎嗅)—— 与深读 01 里「技能脚手架反成限制」的发现互为印证。
  6. 我为什么停掉了投入半年的 AI 社交产品(虎嗅)—— 一个人+AI 半年做出五六人团队的产品,却跑不通商业化——深读 02 的一线注脚。
← 返回目录
深读 · 01

布罗克曼专访:Astra 首个 10 万卡模型、十亿用户赌注与「防守者窗口」

An Interview with OpenAI President Greg Brockman About Astra and Alignment

Stratechery · Ben Thompson · 2026-09-04 · 约 25 分钟 · 原文链接

导读与要点(建议先读原文)
  • Astra 定位:OpenAI 首个在超 10 万张 GPU 上训练的模型;大量算力投入安全与对齐,被称为「迄今对齐最好的模型」;最大亮点是 computer use 跨过门槛——从「连接器时代」进入「万能连接器」时代。
  • 十亿用户赌注:全球超 10% 人口、美国约三分之一人口每周使用 ChatGPT;布罗克曼认为这十亿用户是「投资」而非包袱,战略是消费级与企业级合并为「一个 AGI、一个系统、一套统一栈」。
  • 聚焦的代价:为保持聚焦砍掉 Sora(娱乐向消费级);2026 年主题是修剪与协同——「适合一个阶段的团队未必适合下一阶段」。
  • Hugging Face 事件回应:承认「防守方失去了时间」;提出「防守者窗口」概念——防守方有时间差可率先获得前沿能力,但「进攻是技术问题,防守是政治问题」,缺的是组织意志力;OpenAI 已把 25% 生产工程师转去自保,用 Astra 端到端扫描自有系统。
  • 芯片与价值链:自研 Jalapeño 芯片用自家模型辅助设计(曾整月不读模型改了什么、事后发现它找出的优化都在人类清单上);同时强调英伟达是首选算力伙伴、合作还在加深;医疗是三边市场,每周 3 亿人用 ChatGPT 问健康问题。
  • 批判性阅读:这是被访者主场——「最有对齐的模型」「防守者窗口」均无第三方验证;Hugging Face 事件的回答前半段明显公关化(「本来就有沙箱」),被 Thompson 当场戳破后才转入实质性回答;但正因如此,这是观察 OpenAI 如何自我叙事的一手材料。
This week's Stratechery interview is with OpenAI President and co-founder Greg Brockman. Brockman dropped out of college in 2010 to join Stripe, and rose to become the company's CTO; he left in 2015 and co-founded OpenAI, where he also served as CTO. Today, after an interesting few years, Brockman is President of OpenAI, and is the face of yesterday's announcement of Astra, OpenAI's newest model.
本期 Stratechery 访谈的嘉宾是 OpenAI 总裁兼联合创始人格雷格·布罗克曼(Greg Brockman)。他 2010 年从大学辍学加入 Stripe,一路做到公司 CTO;2015 年离开后联合创办 OpenAI,同样出任 CTO。经历了颇为跌宕的几年之后,布罗克曼如今是 OpenAI 总裁,也是 OpenAI 最新模型 Astra 发布的门面人物。
In this interview, recorded before the Astra announcement, we discuss Brockman's background, his time at Stripe, and the early years of OpenAI. We touch on the ChatGPT launch and the drama of 2023, and whether or not having a billion users is actually a disadvantage. We also touch on OpenAI's place on the value chain, and their competition with companies closer to consumers, like Microsoft, and their suppliers, like Nvidia. We also talk about Astra and OpenAI's stated commitment to alignment, and debate whether or not OpenAI took security seriously in the run-up to the Hugging Face incident.
本次访谈录制于 Astra 发布之前。我们聊了布罗克曼的成长经历、他在 Stripe 的岁月和 OpenAI 的早年;聊到 ChatGPT 的发布与 2023 年的那场动荡,以及「拥有十亿用户究竟是不是一种劣势」;还聊到 OpenAI 在价值链上的位置、它与微软(Microsoft)这样更贴近消费者的公司、以及与英伟达(Nvidia)这样的供应商之间的竞争。我们也谈到 Astra 与 OpenAI 宣称的对齐承诺,并辩论了在 Hugging Face 事件之前,OpenAI 是否真的把安全当回事。
This interview is lightly edited for clarity. Topics: Background, Stripe, OpenAI, OpenAI and the Turing Test, ChatGPT and OpenAI Drama, Productivity and AGI, Astra, The AI Value Chain, Cybersecurity.
本访谈为清晰起见做了轻度编辑。话题包括:背景、Stripe、OpenAI、OpenAI 与图灵测试、ChatGPT 与 OpenAI 内斗、生产力与 AGI、Astra、AI 价值链、网络安全。(下文「汤普森」为主持人本·汤普森(Ben Thompson),「布罗克曼」为受访嘉宾。)

一、背景Background

Greg Brockman, welcome to Stratechery. GB: Thank you for having me. Excited to be here.
汤普森:格雷格·布罗克曼,欢迎来到 Stratechery。 布罗克曼:谢谢邀请,很高兴来到这里。
So we obviously have a massive amount of news to get to, but given this is the first time we have talked, I don't want to pass up the usual Stratechery biography question I ask anyone. I do want to ask — do you define North Dakota as being a part of the Midwest? GB: I do.
汤普森:我们显然有一大堆新闻要聊,但既然这是我们第一次对谈,我不想跳过 Stratechery 对每个嘉宾都问的例牌履历问题。我想问——你把北达科他州(North Dakota)算作中西部的一部分吗? 布罗克曼:算。
All right, well, a fellow Midwesterner, of course I have to spend some time there. You went to school in Boston, as they say, but before we get to there — you have an amazing resume even before you get to school, like the International Olympiad, but in chemistry. Where did the computers come in, or were computers a part of your life from the beginning? GB: Well, computers were always in the background for me growing up. I loved to play computer games, but I was really into math, I was into science. I actually thought that I was going to potentially be an actor all the way through ninth grade — I was very into acting and performing as well, and dabbled a little bit in philosophy.
汤普森:好,既然是中西部老乡,我当然要多问几句。人们常说你是「在波士顿读的书」,但在那之前——你上学前的履历就已经很惊人了,比如国际奥林匹克竞赛,不过是化学方向的。计算机是怎么进入你的人生的?还是说计算机从一开始就是你生活的一部分? 布罗克曼:在我的成长过程中,计算机一直都在背景里。我喜欢玩电脑游戏,但真正着迷的是数学和科学。实际上直到九年级,我都以为自己可能会去当演员——我那时非常热爱表演,也稍微涉猎过一点哲学。
There's a curveball! I did not know that was coming, but I'm going to figure out what the connection is between what you do now and acting, but let's continue. GB: Well, I felt like in ninth grade, I'd been the star of, or the male lead in, a play or two in my middle school, high school. And I was thinking about, I wanted to double down on something, I felt like I could be best in the world and really try to move the needle in a field, and I felt like I either had to pick a more cerebral, hard sciences approach or more of the arts and acting direction and creative route. I ended up picking the hard sciences one, because I felt like maybe that was an area where I could most make a difference in the world.
汤普森:这真是个意外!我没想到会听到这个。等会儿我得琢磨琢磨你现在做的事和表演之间有什么联系,不过先继续。 布罗克曼:九年级的时候,我在初高中的一两部戏里当过主演、男主角。当时我在想,我要在某件事上全力投入——我觉得自己可以在某个领域做到世界顶尖,真正推动一点什么。我觉得自己要二选一:要么走更烧脑的硬科学路线,要么走艺术、表演这条创作路线。最后我选了硬科学,因为我觉得那或许是我最能改变世界的地方。
And why did you think you could most make a difference in the world by going in that direction? GB: I guess for me it felt like — one of the things I loved about acting was actually the group aspect of it. I loved improv, you're just creatively thinking about things, you're bouncing ideas back and forth, but it also really requires being part of a team that works together super well, and that's something that's not always guaranteed. That's a hard thing to accomplish and find. The thing that I really liked about the more cerebral route is it feels like you sharpen your own skills. One thing I did learn, actually, was that even if you're great at writing code, that's not enough. It is actually about also bringing in that great team, and that's part of, I think, what my career has been about — really helping to build and shape environments and culture that are actually able to deliver great results.
汤普森:为什么你觉得走这个方向最能改变世界? 布罗克曼:对我来说——我热爱表演的原因之一其实是它的群体性。我喜欢即兴表演,大家创造性地思考,点子来回碰撞;但它也极度依赖一支配合无间的团队,而这并不是总能得到的,是可遇不可求的。而我真正喜欢烧脑路线的地方在于,它更像是在打磨自己的技艺。不过我也确实学到一件事:哪怕你代码写得再好,也远远不够——你还得拥有一支出色的团队。我想这正是我职业生涯的一条主线:真正去构建和塑造能够产出卓越成果的环境与文化。
One thing that's interesting, there's an aspect here about environment also shaping some of these things. You mentioned you were always the male lead in plays and dramas. I just recognize from my kids going through this era — my daughter was very into musicals and stuff for a while — there's intense competition for the female lead, and usually if there's just a competent male who's willing to volunteer, he gets the role every time. Was there a lot of competition for the male leads, or were you one of one? GB: (laughing) I think that might explain it. I'll tell you a story, though.
汤普森:有意思的是,这里面也有环境塑造的因素。你说你总是演男主角。我从自己孩子身上见识过这个阶段——我女儿有段时间特别迷音乐剧——女主角的竞争极其激烈,而通常只要有个还过得去的男生愿意报名,男主角就非他莫属。你那时男主角的竞争激烈吗?还是说你是独一份? 布罗克曼:(笑)也许原因就在这儿。不过我给你讲个故事。
What about the flip side too? Being in North Dakota, were there not a lot of people super intense at the hard sciences, and so did that almost seem like a rarer thing by the same token? GB: Well, I'll tell you two stories. So one on the acting front. My first ever paid job was an acting gig. Mannheim Steamroller was in town in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Are you familiar with Mannheim Steamroller? I am. Yes, absolutely.
汤普森:那反面呢?在北达科他,痴迷硬科学的人是不是也不多?同理,这会不会反而让你显得更稀缺? 布罗克曼:我给你讲两个故事。先说表演方面的。我人生第一份有报酬的工作就是一场演出。Mannheim Steamroller(曼海姆压路机乐队)来到北达科他州的大福克斯(Grand Forks)演出。你知道 Mannheim Steamroller 吗? 汤普森:知道,当然。
GB: So they were putting on a concert, and they needed extras. They needed people to be these tin soldiers to walk around, because it was a Christmas holiday concert. I went to the audition, and I was this scrawny ninth grader, and there were all these big college students there. What they told everyone to do is, "Okay, everyone march in that direction", and then the casting people would compare notes and you'd have some downtime, then they'd say, "Okay, march in the other direction". What I noticed is that all these college students during that downtime were talking to each other, hanging out, and I was like, this job has one requirement, which is you're going to be six hours at attention the whole time walking around this concert. So during that downtime, I was there standing at attention, just being in character. At the end, they said, "Okay, we're selecting this person, this person, this person. Everyone else can leave". I was not picked.
布罗克曼:他们当时要办一场圣诞主题的音乐会,需要群演扮演绕场行走的锡兵。我去参加试镜,那时我是个瘦小的九年级学生,周围全是大块头的大学生。选拔的流程是:「好,所有人朝那边齐步走」,选角的人碰头商量,中间有一段等待时间,然后再说「好,朝另一边走」。我注意到,等待的时候那些大学生都在互相聊天、闲逛,而我想的是:这份工作只有一个要求——你要整场六个小时保持立正姿势绕场走。于是在等待时间里,我也站在那儿纹丝不动,完全进入角色。最后他们说:「好,我们选这位、这位、这位,其他人可以走了。」我没有被选上。
GB: But on the way out, they said, "Actually, we thought you were amazing. We loved seeing how much you were dedicated to this, so we're going to actually make a new role for you". And so I got to be a gingerbread man, and they gave me a whole costume. And that was my first job. So it was a little bit of trying to be out of the box in order to try to get the job done — not always defaulting into the role, but trying to find creative ways to get it.
布罗克曼:但在我往外走的时候,他们说:「其实我们觉得你特别棒。我们很喜欢你这份投入,所以我们决定专门为你新设一个角色。」于是我演了姜饼人,他们给了我一整套戏服。那就是我的第一份工作。这件事有点像——为了把事情做成,你得跳出框框:不总是默认接受既定的角色,而是想办法用创造性的方式拿到它。
GB: But I think that when it came to growing up in North Dakota, one of the things that was really great was that it was possible for me to really excel and be the best in the state at different areas that I put my mind to. So I was advanced in math. I ended up going to University of North Dakota starting in 10th grade and taking a bunch of courses there. I got very into math competitions, and then I'd go to the national competition, I'd go to the national math camp, and there I would meet the best in the country. These people were so amazing, and actually, one thing that's been a real privilege and honor is that many of the people that I really looked up to at math camp now work at OpenAI. So I've gotten to see them in this new field, this new light.
布罗克曼:至于在北达科他长大,我觉得特别好的一点是:只要我真的用心,就有机会在很多领域做到全州最好。我数学很超前,十年级就开始在北达科他大学(University of North Dakota)修课。我迷上了数学竞赛,后来去全国竞赛、去全国数学营,在那里见到全国最厉害的一群人。他们太出色了——而一件让我深感荣幸的事是,当年数学营里我特别敬佩的不少人,如今就在 OpenAI 工作。我得以在这个新领域里,以新的眼光重新认识他们。
GB: But it was both that I could really chart my own course. I started doing math research, and I know that if I'd gone to some of these high-powered high schools or these much more competitive states, I think I wouldn't have stood out. I would have had to be in the standard track. So it was by being in this area that I was able to explore my interest and really march to my own tune.
布罗克曼:同时也因为我可以真正走自己的路。我开始做数学研究。我知道,如果我去的是那些精英高中或者竞争激烈的州,我大概不会冒尖,只能走标准轨道。正因为身处那个地方,我才能探索自己的兴趣,真正按自己的节奏前进。
So when people say they went to school in Boston, they usually mean Harvard, which is where you started. Then you switched to MIT. And then at some point you're working for Stripe. What's the sequence there? When did you meet the Collisons? What happened in Boston? GB: Well, after high school, I took a year off, and I actually started working on a chemistry textbook, because I'd gotten very into chemistry in high school, competitive chemistry, and come up with a unique way of thinking about it. Very first principles, very mathematical, rather than memorization. I wanted to teach that, I wanted to propagate that. So I actually wrote 100 pages. It's on my website right now. I haven't finished it. I've been intending to get back to it. That's like a retirement project, I love it. GB: Exactly. Well, at this point, I think you can just ask Astra, and it'll do a great job.
汤普森:人们说「在波士顿上学」通常指的是哈佛(Harvard),那也是你的起点。后来你转去了 MIT(麻省理工学院)。再往后某个时点,你已经在 Stripe 工作了。这中间是什么顺序?你什么时候认识科利森兄弟(the Collisons)的?在波士顿发生了什么? 布罗克曼:高中毕业后我休学了一年,其实那时我开始写一本化学教科书——因为我高中时迷上了化学、搞竞赛化学,并且琢磨出一套独特的思考方式:非常第一性原理、非常数学化,而不是靠死记硬背。我想把它教给别人、传播出去。我实际写了一百页,现在还挂在我的网站上,没写完,我一直打算回去续写。 汤普森:这像个退休后再干的项目,我喜欢。 布罗克曼:没错。不过事到如今,我觉得你直接问 Astra 就行,它会干得很漂亮。
GB: But I was trying to figure out how do I get this thing published, so I asked one of my friends who had done something similar in math, and he said, "Well, you don't have a PhD, so no one's going to publish it. So you can either self-publish" — and I was like, oh, that's a lot of work, a lot of capital — "or you can make a website and try to promote the ideas that way". And I said, "I guess I'm going to learn how to code". So I went on W3Schools. Do you remember W3Schools? Have you ever seen that website? No, I don't think so. GB: Okay, so this is the classic — they have an HTML tutorial, JavaScript, CSS, PHP. I read through them and I was like, "I should test this out". I remember I built a little first widget: you could click a table column, and it would sort the rows accordingly. It was the coolest feeling ever. I had this thing in my head that I was picturing, now it's in the world, and anyone can benefit from it. They don't need to understand the details behind it, it just works.
布罗克曼:但当时我在想怎么把这本书出版。我问了一个在数学上干过类似事情的朋友,他说:「你没有博士学位,没人会给你出书的。你要么自费出版」——我心想,那太费钱费事了——「要么做个网站,用这种办法传播你的想法。」我说:「那我大概得学写代码了。」于是我上了 W3Schools。你还记得 W3Schools 吗?见过那个网站吗? 汤普森:没有印象。 布罗克曼:那可是经典——上面有 HTML、JavaScript、CSS、PHP 的教程。我通读了一遍,心想「得动手试试」。我记得自己做的第一个小部件是:点击表格的列头,行就会按那列排序。那感觉酷毙了——我脑子里想象的东西,现在出现在了世界上,任何人都能受益。他们不需要理解背后的细节,它就是能用。
GB: I remember the very first thing I built that had users, it was actually a competitive chatbot game, and I got 1,500 hits from StumbleUpon one day. It was the most glorious feeling, there were 1,500 people who had played with my game, had hopefully enjoyed it, but they stuck around enough to play it. I was just like, "This is what I want, I want to help people, I want to benefit people and build for them". So that's what I showed up thinking I was going to do at Harvard, that really had changed for me. I thought I was going to do these more eclectic interests, and instead I was like, "I just want to build". Freshman year at Harvard, I was in this computer club, there were these two seniors who would have obscure technical debates every single time. We would all listen and say, "One day we'll understand, one day that will be us". But then they graduated, and sophomore year came.
布罗克曼:我记得自己做的第一个有用户的东西,其实是一个竞技聊天机器人游戏。有一天它从 StumbleUpon 带来了 1500 次访问——那感觉太辉煌了:有 1500 个人玩过我的游戏,希望他们也玩得开心,至少他们留下来玩了。我当时就想:「这就是我想要的。我想帮助人、造福人,为他们做东西。」所以我去哈佛报到时,想法已经完全变了。我原本以为自己会发展那些更杂的兴趣,结果满脑子都是「我就是想造东西」。哈佛大一那年,我参加了一个计算机社团,有两个大四学长每次聚会都在进行高深莫测的技术辩论。我们一帮人旁听,心想「总有一天我们能听懂,总有一天我们也会变成他们」。但后来他们毕业了,我的大二来了。
So did you just switch over to MIT because you realized you had this focus on coding and building? GB: That's basically right. Because sophomore year, I was running the club. I was supposed to be having the obscure technical debates, and I was like, "I'm not ready. I have so much to learn. I need to be around people who are so much better than me". Got it. GB: And so I spent so much time down at MIT, and I was like, it just makes sense to transfer.
汤普森:所以你转去 MIT,就是因为意识到自己只想专注于写代码、造东西? 布罗克曼:基本如此。因为大二时轮到我来带社团了——该我来进行那些高深的技术辩论了,可我心里想的是:「我还没准备好,我要学的东西太多了,我需要待在一群比我强得多的人身边。」 汤普森:明白。 布罗克曼:于是我往 MIT 跑的时间越来越多,后来觉得,转学过去才是顺理成章的事。

二、StripeStripe

Got it. So when did you meet the Collisons then? GB: So I met them in 2010, late 2010. We had a lot of mutual friends, because John had gone to Harvard, Patrick had gone to MIT, and they were poking around. That team was poking around trying to find who's into computers at either of these schools, and my name kept coming up. Right. GB: So I got a reach out from the team, and I flew out. And I remember meeting Patrick, really, for me, was the moment I was like, "All right, this is someone I want to work with, I feel like we could build something great together".
汤普森:那你是什么时候认识科利森兄弟的? 布罗克曼:2010 年底。我们有很多共同朋友——约翰(John)上过哈佛,帕特里克(Patrick)上过 MIT,他们那支团队当时正四处打探这两所学校里谁痴迷计算机,我的名字不断被提到。 汤普森:嗯。 布罗克曼:后来团队联系了我,我飞了过去。我记得见到帕特里克的那一刻,对我来说就是:「好,这就是我想共事的人,我觉得我们能一起造出了不起的东西。」
So my next question was what attracted you to Stripe, but it sounds like you just answered it. What did you learn there? You were pretty early on the team, progressed very rapidly. By the time you left, you were CTO. What was the takeaway for you from Stripe itself and Stripe scaling, but also yourself growing so rapidly inside this company that is itself growing rapidly? GB: First of all, for me, it's always been about the people. I knew that these were people that I wanted to work with, that it felt like we could learn together, we could accomplish something great, and so that was a real key. And by the way, dropping out of school twice is something that I do not wish on anyone's parents. It definitely was something that was difficult for mine, but they actually were very supportive in the end.
汤普森:我下一个问题本来是「Stripe 什么地方吸引了你」,不过你好像已经回答了。那你在那里学到了什么?你很早就加入团队、晋升飞快,离开时已是 CTO。Stripe 本身和它的扩张,加上你个人在一家高速成长的公司里高速成长——你的收获是什么? 布罗克曼:首先,对我来说永远是人。我知道这些是我想共事的人,我们能一起学习、一起成就大事,这是真正的关键。顺便说一句,两次辍学这种事,我不希望发生在任何人的父母身上——对我的父母来说确实很煎熬,但他们最后非常支持我。
No, we're getting the idea, you take things to the extreme, right? Most founders drop out once, you had to do it twice. We're getting the drift. GB: Exactly, exactly right. I remember a lot of the early days of Stripe was really about first principles thinking. We were in a domain, this credit card industry, that is very opaque, very Byzantine, it's been built up over many decades and has so much complexity that the card networks themselves run on ISO 8583, the spec from the '80s. It's a byte-oriented format, the whole thing. And we were trying to figure out, "How do we make this simple, dead simple, for the Internet era?".
汤普森:懂了,你做事就是走极端——大多数创始人只辍学一次,你非要辍两次。我们领会了。 布罗克曼:没错。我记得 Stripe 早年最重要的就是第一性原理思考。我们身处的信用卡行业极其不透明、极其错综复杂,几十年层层累积,复杂到卡组织自己还在跑 ISO 8583——那是上世纪 80 年代的规范,整个是面向字节的格式。而我们要解决的问题是:「怎样让它在互联网时代变得简单、极致简单?」
GB: So a lot of this is about deep understanding of a domain that you have no familiarity with. None of us really grew up as payments experts, but you just want to really deeply understand how it works so that you can expose the right primitives and the right APIs and abstractions. That to me was actually the core skill, and something that has been very transferable between Stripe and OpenAI. They're very similar in some ways, where you go and you have to scientifically learn about a domain. AI versus payments, obviously different in terms of the specifics of those domains — one is much more about natural science, the other is almost this system that has been built up of complexity — but they are fundamentally about understanding the underlying why of how something works and exposing it in a way that's simple and easy.
布罗克曼:这在很大程度上要求你深入理解一个自己完全陌生的领域。我们没有谁生来就是支付专家,但你必须真正搞懂它的运作方式,才能抽象出正确的原语、正确的 API。对我来说,这其实是核心技能,而且在 Stripe 和 OpenAI 之间高度可迁移。两者在某些方面很像:你都得像做科学一样去学习一个领域。AI 和支付在具体内涵上当然不同——一个更接近自然科学,另一个几乎是层层叠叠垒出来的复杂系统——但它们的根本都是:理解事物运转背后的「为什么」,再用简单易懂的方式把它呈现出来。
GB: I spent a lot of time on recruiting, a lot of time on culture, I think one thing I found is that I love coding, I love that feeling of flow state and just building and creating. Right, you're legendary for these hours-long flow states and just coding endlessly. What's the longest coding session slash flow state you had while building Stripe? GB: Oh, it all blurs together. I couldn't possibly say, but I would just say that for me, there was this 24-hour sprint that was how we actually got onto the credit card networks. That was just this really great time that all of us were there together in the office, none of us slept, and it was supposed to be an integration that was going to take nine months, we got it done overnight, and if we had missed it by a day, it would have been another month. As a startup, every day matters, so that kind of accomplishing what seems impossible otherwise, I love it. That is something that was incredibly exciting.
布罗克曼:我花了很多时间在招聘和企业文化上。我发现的一点是:我热爱写代码,热爱那种心流状态,就是纯粹地建造和创造。 汤普森:对,你那种一坐几个小时、不停写代码的心流状态可是出了名的。在 Stripe 期间,你最长的一次连续编码/心流是多久? 布罗克曼:都糊成一片了,真说不上来。但我想说,有一次 24 小时的冲刺——我们靠它接上了卡组织网络。那段时光特别棒,所有人都在办公室,谁都没睡。那本来是个要做九个月的集成项目,我们一夜搞定;而如果晚一天,就得再等一个月。创业公司每一天都生死攸关,这种把不可能变成可能的事,我太爱了,那种兴奋难以形容。
When you became CTO, you wrote a post saying how you were talking to other CTOs, you thought it was more of an architectural job, none of them did that, and you're like, "I feel like I lose my feedback loops, I'm not connected to the product, I need to code again, I'm going to become a coder". I'm curious, you wrote that towards the beginning of being a CTO, how long did that last? How long did you stay in touch with coding? GB: Well, I would say probably for almost another decade. One area that I think I've grown on and that I've really learned is how to stay in touch and really help move forward a team and bring together a team, even if you yourself are not hands on keyboard.
汤普森:你当 CTO 时写过一篇文章,说你和其他 CTO 交流——你以为那是个架构师的活儿,结果没人那么干;你说「我感觉自己失去了反馈回路,和产品脱节了,我要重新写代码,我要做回程序员」。我很好奇,你那篇文章写在 CTO 任期的开头,这个状态维持了多久?你和一线编码保持了多久的联系? 布罗克曼:大概又维持了将近十年。我觉得自己有所成长、真正学到的一点是:即使自己不亲手敲键盘,怎样依然保持对一线的触感、真正推动团队前进、把团队凝聚起来。
GB: And by the way, I will say that this is something that I think is actually an important lesson almost for every software engineer now, because the act of what coding is has changed so significantly over the course of the year. I think over the next year it's going to change even more. We are all moving away from having to be the one who knows exactly which library to use and is able to craft the syntax and where the semicolons go. We are all moving to being these higher-level managers, these directors, the source of the inspiration, the vision, the judgment, the feedback. I think that shift, it's been something for me that was difficult, because you had to let go of something that I was used to and valued and really loved. But I've actually replaced it with something I love even more. I know I'm talking to a smart guy because you stole my foreshadowing. I was going to circle back to that in a little bit, but yes, that's exactly where we're going.
布罗克曼:顺带说一句,我认为这对今天几乎每个软件工程师都是重要的一课——因为「写代码」这件事的内涵,在这一年里已经天翻地覆,明年变化还会更大。我们所有人都在远离「必须自己知道用哪个库、能雕琢语法、记得分号放哪」的时代,都在变成更高层的管理者、导演,成为灵感、愿景、判断力和反馈的来源。这个转变对我自己来说曾经很难——你得放下自己习惯、珍视、热爱的东西。但我最终找到了一件我更热爱的事来替代它。 汤普森:我就知道自己是在跟一个聪明人聊天——你把我的伏笔抢走了。我本来等会儿要绕回这个话题的,不过没错,我们正往那儿去。

三、OpenAI 与图灵测试OpenAI and the Turing Test

Let's get to OpenAI. You're a part of the OpenAI founding team. What's your version of the story? I'm sure this could be a whole hour-long podcast, but what drew you to this space and got you guys started? GB: Well, I have been excited about the idea of AI for a long time. I remember when I was first getting into programming, I read Alan Turing's 1950 paper on the Turing test. It's this really interesting paper, it's like 70 pages or something. It starts out by saying, "Well, what does it mean for a machine to be intelligent? I don't know what that means. Intelligent is not well-defined. So let's have a well-defined version of it".
汤普森:聊聊 OpenAI 吧。你是创始团队的一员,你的版本是什么故事?这话题肯定够做一整期播客,但——是什么把你吸引到这个领域、让你们起步的? 布罗克曼:我对 AI 这个想法着迷已经很久了。记得刚开始学编程时,我读了艾伦·图灵(Alan Turing)1950 年那篇关于图灵测试的论文。那篇文章非常有意思,大概 70 页。它开头就说:「机器有智能意味着什么?我不知道。『智能』没有明确的定义,那我们给它一个可操作的定义。」
I'm going to ask you what is AGI in a little bit. So it sounds like it's still unsettled, right? GB: Well, there you go, yes. So Turing very smartly sidestepped the question and said, "Let's just have an operational definition of this, where if you can have a test where a human can't tell the difference between an AI speaking to them and another human, we'll define that machine as intelligent". The thing that was very interesting, though, that gets much less airtime, is he said, "Well, how are you ever going to solve this? It's just too hard to program an answer to it. You cannot write down all the rules for how to respond to questions. Instead, what if you could build a machine that learns? What if you could build what he called a child machine?". And then you teach it — you have a teacher who gives it rewards and punishments, and then you're able to actually give it intelligence and help it be able to pass this test.
汤普森:等会儿我会问你 AGI 是什么。这么说来,这个问题至今没有定论? 布罗克曼:没错。图灵非常聪明地绕开了这个问题,他说:「我们就给一个可操作的定义——如果一项测试里,人分辨不出对面是 AI 还是另一个人,我们就定义这台机器是智能的。」但论文里有个很少被人提起的有趣之处:他说,「那你打算怎么实现它?靠编程写出答案太难了,你不可能把回答问题的所有规则都写下来。那——如果你能造一台会学习的机器呢?如果你能造出他所说的『儿童机器』(child machine)呢?」然后你去教它——由一个老师给它奖励和惩罚,这样你就能真正赋予它智能,帮它通过这项测试。
GB: I remember being so struck by this idea, because as a programmer, you only make progress by deeply understanding the solution to something. There are so many problems I don't know the solution to, you don't know the solution to, no person has ever come up with a solution to, we're never going to be able to program the answer. But what if you could have a machine that could understand problems that we cannot, that could understand solutions that we could not? This isn't just about image recognition, though of course it has applied to that. This is also about questions of how do we get along better as a society? How do we structure the world? How do we ensure that the benefits of what we're creating end up lifting up everyone? These are super hard questions that humanity is not necessarily the best positioned to solve. But if a machine could understand, could look through more data, could have a deeper, richer understanding of many different fields all coming together, maybe it could solve them in ways that we could not. So I was so inspired by that idea.
布罗克曼:我记得自己被这个想法深深击中。因为作为程序员,你只有深刻理解一个问题的解法才能取得进展;而太多的问题,我不知道解法,你不知道解法,从来没有人找到过解法,我们永远不可能把答案编程写出来。但如果有一台机器,能理解我们无法理解的问题、理解我们想不出的解法呢?这不只是图像识别——当然它确实用在了那里——这还关乎:我们这个社会如何更好地相处?如何组织这个世界?如何确保我们创造的东西最终惠及每一个人?这些都是超级难的问题,人类自己未必最有能力解决。但如果一台机器能够理解、能够遍历更多数据、能够把许多领域融会贯通成更深更丰富的理解,也许它能以我们做不到的方式解决这些问题。这个想法给了我巨大的鼓舞。
GB: But it was an idea. I remember showing up at Harvard, asking my professors, "Hey, could I do some AI research?", and they showed me what the natural language processing state of the art was at the time. It was so clear to me, I was like, this is not what Turing was talking about. It's much more hard-coded, parse trees, all of those things, this is not going to scale to AGI.
布罗克曼:但那还只是个点子。我记得刚到哈佛时,我去问教授们:「我能做点 AI 研究吗?」他们给我看了当时自然语言处理的最前沿。我一眼就看明白了:这不是图灵说的东西——大量硬编码、句法分析树之类的玩意儿,这条路扩展不到 AGI。
GB: But something in the early 2010s changed, and I was watching from the outside. 2012 was AlexNet, then there was a series of other papers, and the thing that I would just keep seeing on Hacker News, it felt like every day there was a new "deep learning for X", I was just like, "What is deep learning?" — I remember going to deeplearning.org, and it just said, "Deep learning is a new approach to artificial intelligence". I'm like, I have no idea what this means, I actually knew one person in the field, I went to them and asked them to introduce me to more people in the field, and I just kept getting reintroduced to a bunch of my smartest friends from college. I was like, "Wait, that's interesting, these people are working on this, that's actually a very strong signal".
布罗克曼:但 2010 年代初,有些事情变了,我在局外旁观。2012 年是 AlexNet,之后一系列论文接连出现;我在 Hacker News 上不断刷到——感觉每天都有一个新的「用深度学习做 X」。我当时想:「深度学习到底是什么?」我记得打开 deeplearning.org,上面就一句话:「深度学习是人工智能的一种新方法。」我完全看不懂。我在这个领域只认识一个人,就去找他介绍更多圈内人,结果他一次次给我重新介绍的,全是我大学里最聪明的那批朋友。我心想:「有意思,这些人都在做这件事——这其实是个非常强的信号。」
GB: So by 2015, it felt to me like there was something real happening. I was spending a lot of time as well really thinking about AI safety, thinking about the long-term future of this kind of technology, what it means to get it right, and it was more philosophy at the time. There were various writings you could find online that were very cool thought experiments, I ran a reading group at Stripe where we would talk about these things every week. So it's something I deeply cared about, thinking about if there's any way that I could help AI go slightly better than it would without me, that would be the best thing I could do with my career.
布罗克曼:所以到 2015 年,我觉得真有事情在发生了。同时我也花了很多时间思考 AI 安全,思考这种技术的长期未来、把它做对了意味着什么——那时这些更多是哲学问题。网上能找到各种很酷的思想实验文章,我在 Stripe 办了个读书会,每周讨论这些。这是我非常在乎的事——我想,如果有任何办法能让 AI 的发展比「没有我」时好上一点点,那就是我职业生涯能做的最好的事。
GB: That was all leading up to 2015, and I felt like I'd reached a milestone at Stripe where the company was going to work with or without me, it was kind of a question of, "Do I want to go the manager route?", which is what you need to get to the next phase, or, "Do I want to go start a new company?", That was something that had always motivated me, and so I decided that's what I wanted to do. As I was about to leave, Patrick said, "Why don't you go talk to Sam [Altman]", who he had introduced me to a couple years before. He said, "He's seen a lot of young people in similar situations, maybe he can give you some advice" — kind of hoping that Sam would convince me to stay. It didn't quite play that way. (laughing) Yeah. GB: I met up with Sam, and three minutes in, he's like, "Okay, you're clear you're out, what are you thinking about doing next?", I said, "Well, I'm thinking about doing something in AI", he said, "I'm also thinking about doing something in AI". And that was the start.
布罗克曼:时间来到 2015 年,我觉得自己在 Stripe 已经到达了一个节点:公司有我没我都能运转。问题变成了:「我要不要走管理路线?」——那是进入下一阶段的必经之路;还是「我要不要去创办一家新公司?」——那才是一直驱动我的东西。于是我决定创业。临走时,帕特里克说:「你何不去找萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)聊聊」——他几年前介绍我们认识过。他说:「他见过很多处境相似的年轻人,也许能给你点建议。」他心里多少是希望萨姆能劝我留下。但事情没往那个方向发展。 汤普森:(笑)确实。 布罗克曼:我和萨姆见了面,开场三分钟他就说:「好,既然你铁了心要走,下一步想干什么?」我说:「我想做点 AI 方面的事。」他说:「我也正想做点 AI 方面的事。」一切就是这样开始的。
Were you on board with the whole non-profit thing? What were your thoughts on that when you set that up? GB: Well, the idea of being a non-profit is something that Sam had proposed, and I think that there are actually a lot of very important properties, and you see ones that have really rung true to today. The technology we are building, it's just bigger than anything that's been created, it's bigger than the traditional structures and systems. There is no one corporate structure that exists that actually fully encapsulates the mission and the work we need to do.
汤普森:你当时认同非营利组织这个定位吗?设立的时候你怎么想? 布罗克曼:非营利的主意是萨姆提的。我认为它确实有很多非常重要的属性,有些直到今天仍然成立。我们正在构建的技术,比人类创造过的任何东西都大,也大于传统的结构与体系——现存的公司架构里,没有哪一种能完整装下我们的使命和必须做的工作。
GB: So I think starting that way made perfect sense, and there was always a question of what is it going to take to actually operationalize the mission? That's something we spent a long time really thinking about. I think we've been the company that's been the most innovative in really thinking about can you build a structure around all of the different aspects of both the commercial development that needs to happen, the distribution of benefits that needs to happen, the practical way of actually bringing forth this compute-powered economy, and doing all of that at once. So I think it's been an important element, it remains a critical element to what we do. But again, I think we've innovated so much on corporate structure around the core of this mission, and that mission is invariant.
布罗克曼:所以我认为那样起步完全合理。接下来始终有个问题:怎样才能真正把使命落地为可运营的东西?这是我们花了很长时间认真思考的。在「能否围绕所有这些不同侧面建一套结构」这件事上——必须发生的商业化开发、必须实现的利益分配、把算力驱动型经济真正带到现实中的实操路径,还要同时推进——我认为我们是创新得最多的公司。所以非营利是重要的一环,至今仍是关键一环。但同样地,我们围绕这个使命核心在公司结构上做了大量创新,而使命本身是不变的。
Yeah, innovate is one way to put it. You mentioned the credit card networks, right? It's super opaque, lots of stuff from the '80s, a massive amount of path dependency that gave Stripe an opportunity, because you could abstract that all away and just be, for everyone else, "Here's an API, it'll work, don't ask questions". Now when you look back at OpenAI — it's hard to believe it's been over a decade now — could OpenAI have come about in any other way? Is there that sort of path dependency in there, or is there a, "If I went back to first principles, me, Greg Brockman, which I like to do, I would have structured this a lot differently"? GB: I don't see any other way that we could have gotten to where we are, and I think where this mission needs us to be.
汤普森:「创新」——这倒是一种说法。你刚才提到卡组织:极度不透明、一堆 80 年代的东西、巨大的路径依赖,而这恰恰给了 Stripe 机会——你们把复杂性全部抽象掉,对别人来说就是「给你一个 API,能用就行,别多问」。现在回看 OpenAI——很难相信已经十几年了——它有可能以别的方式诞生吗?这里面有没有类似的路径依赖?或者说,有没有一种可能:「如果我格雷格·布罗克曼回到第一性原理——我一向喜欢这么做——我会用完全不同的方式来搭这个结构」? 布罗克曼:我想不出还有任何别的路径能让我们走到今天——走到这个使命需要我们到达的地方。

四、ChatGPT 与 OpenAI 内斗ChatGPT and OpenAI Drama

Tell me about the ChatGPT launch, because you have the turning point where you realize you need to scale, you partner with Microsoft, add the for-profit bit, and then ChatGPT comes out and it's huge. Did you have any expectations it would be as big as it was? GB: So the thing that surprised me, my prediction error, was GPT-3.5 being something that people would really love and want. We had GPT-4 at the time, it had finished training in August or so, and we launched ChatGPT at the very end of November of '22. The thing that always happens when we have a new model is that we just latch onto it. The old one looks terrible. GB: All we see is just flaws in the previous one. We're just like, "Ah, this previous one is so bad, I can't imagine anyone would ever want to use it". We had like 200 testers who we'd been paying to use the pre-release ChatGPT, and again, we had to pay them to use it rather than the other way around. So there were some signs of product-market fit if you really dug in and were close to the details, but if you zoomed out, it really didn't look like we had it.
汤普森:说说 ChatGPT 的发布吧。你们的转折点在于意识到必须扩大规模,于是与微软合作、加上了营利实体,然后 ChatGPT 横空出世、一炮而红。你们当时预料到它会这么大吗? 布罗克曼:让我意外的地方——我的预测误差——是 GPT-3.5 竟然会成为人们真心喜爱、真心想要的东西。那时我们手里已经有 GPT-4 了,它 8 月左右就完成了训练,而我们 11 月底才发布 ChatGPT。每次有了新模型,我们总会一头扎进去—— 汤普森:旧模型就显得惨不忍睹。 布罗克曼:我们眼里全是旧模型的毛病:「这东西太烂了,无法想象还会有人想用。」我们当时有大约 200 名测试者,是我们付钱请他们用预发布版 ChatGPT 的——注意,是我们付钱给他们,而不是反过来。所以如果你钻进细节里看,确实有一些产品-市场契合的迹象;但拉远了看,真不像是成了。
GB: But the way that we thought about it was GPT-4 clearly was going to change the world, we knew that, it was very obvious from the first moment we talked to it. I remember for that first week after GPT-4 came out of training, just feeling the reality of it. We'd been dreaming of AGI, thinking about AGI, thinking about what it might be like. But the first time you have a technology that really you can ask any question and it can give you pretty sensible answers, that got a 5 on AP Bio — all of those things, to me, felt like, okay, something is going to be different. It may not transform the world tomorrow, but over upcoming years, this technology absolutely will, and it's real now. That was very clear.
布罗克曼:但我们当时的想法是:GPT-4 显然将改变世界——从第一次和它对话的那一刻起,这就显而易见。我记得 GPT-4 训练完成后的第一周,那种「它真实存在」的体感。我们一直梦想 AGI、谈论 AGI、想象它会是什么样子。但当你第一次拥有一项技术——你可以问它任何问题,它都能给出相当靠谱的回答,能在 AP 生物考试里拿满分 5 分——这一切都让我觉得:好,世界要不一样了。它也许明天还不会改变一切,但未来几年一定会,而且它已经是现实。这一点非常清楚。
GB: So you look at the ChatGPT launch, the way I thought about it was we just need to get the infrastructure out first, so that we can have LLM-serving infrastructure that's battle-tested, that we've put our reps in. Then in March, when we launched GPT-4 — which, if you remember, we did the six-month delay between completing it and actually launching it — then we'll already have the infrastructure ready to go. But I didn't expect it to quite take off in that form, even though I expected it to do so in the future. What was it like at that time? Was it just all hands on deck to keep the servers from melting? GB: Oh, absolutely. So we launched into what we called a low-key research preview, and of course, it was just the full exponential, every single system you can imagine breaking, broke. Our login system became a big bottleneck, we had to do so much work to improve the login system, and you're scratching your head saying, we're building this magic AI technology, and the thing that is your bottleneck is, "Does your login actually scale?".
布罗克曼:至于 ChatGPT 的发布,我当时的想法是:我们只需要先把基础设施铺出去,让 LLM 服务系统经过实战检验、把该练的都练了。这样到 3 月发布 GPT-4 时——你记得吧,从训练完成到正式发布我们隔了六个月——基础设施已经就绪。我预期它未来会起飞,但没料到会以那种形式起飞。 汤普森:那阵子是什么光景?是不是全员上阵,就怕服务器烧了? 布罗克曼:绝对是。我们发布时叫它「低调的研究预览」,结果当然是彻头彻尾的指数级增长——你想象得到的每个系统都崩了。登录系统成了大瓶颈,我们做了大量改造。你一边挠头一边想:我们在造这么神奇的 AI 技术,结果卡住我们的问题是「你的登录系统扛不扛得住并发?」
GB: I remember that we had a fairly inefficient set of inference kernels that were rolled out to production, and I'd actually written some more efficient things, or we had some more efficient things on the research side, and one of the big pieces of work was, "Let's actually take those optimizations, let's move them over", so a bunch of people swarmed on that problem, got it done. I think this was the general flavor of it for that first day, for that first week, for that first month, it was just scaling every system and trying to really keep up with this wave after wave of demand.
布罗克曼:我记得当时生产环境跑的推理 kernel 效率相当低,而我写过一些更高效的实现——或者说研究侧有更高效的东西。于是一项大工程就是「把这些优化真正搬到生产环境」,一群人扑上去把它干成了。第一天、第一周、第一个月基本就是这个基调:给每个系统扩容,拼命追上一波又一波的需求。
What happened in November 2023? GB: Very complicated answer. Where do you want to start? I don't know, I feel like I have to ask you about it. They're tied into — you took a sabbatical not too long after, was there a link between those two things? GB: Look, I would say the way to think about it is that at the highest level, I think that 2023 really showed that there were tensions that had built up, really interpersonal tensions that had built up, that we had not sufficiently gotten ahead of. To me, that's one of the most important lessons of OpenAI, the fact that we're building technology, but it's always about the people, in good and bad ways. It means that really managing people dynamics, that is one of the most important things that we do, and if we don't get ahead of it, if we don't have the hard conversation, then that is actually where things can become much rougher. So I'm happy to drill into more details, but I think that a lot of it, if you really get there, it's not the more interesting technological things.
汤普森:2023 年 11 月发生了什么? 布罗克曼:答案非常复杂。你想从哪里说起? 汤普森:我也说不好,只是觉得这个问题绕不过去。它们之间有关联——那之后不久你就休了个长假,这两件事之间有联系吗? 布罗克曼:这么说吧,我认为最高层面上,2023 年真正暴露的是——积累已久的人际张力,而我们没有足够提前地去处理。对我来说,这是 OpenAI 最重要的教训之一:我们是在构建技术,但归根结底永远关乎人,好的方面如此,坏的方面也如此。这意味着认真管理人与人的动态关系,是我们最重要的工作之一。如果不抢在前面、不开那场艰难的谈话,事情就会糟得多。我愿意往细节里聊,但我觉得说到底,那些都不是更有意思的技术层面的事。
How much of that is tied to ChatGPT being this massive, huge hit you weren't necessarily expecting? Was there a link between those things, or do you think these tensions would have come to a head regardless? GB: I don't think that there's a direct causal link, at least not in my view. I think that to some extent, there maybe is an underlying theme of, as our technology has progressed, everyone feels the weight of the world on them, feels the stakes on them. Actually, one of the things that's hardest is how do you just move forward? To me, the thing that I always remark upon is that the day-to-day activities that we do almost look the same as at every other company. You're still debugging some low-level issue, someone's upset at someone else because they said something, or they didn't include them in the meeting, whatever it is. It's just the human factors, the human work. But of course, the stakes are so massive.
汤普森:其中有多少和 ChatGPT 这个你们始料未及的巨大成功有关?两者之间有联系吗,还是说这些张力无论如何都会爆发? 布罗克曼:至少在我看来,没有直接的因果联系。某种程度上,也许有一个底层主题:随着技术进步,每个人都感到世界压在肩上,感到利害攸关。其实最难的事情之一是怎样继续往前走。我总爱说的一点是:我们的日常活动看起来和任何其他公司几乎一样——你还是在调试某个底层问题,某人因为某句话或者没被拉进会议而心里不舒服,诸如此类。就是人的因素、人的工作。只不过,利害关系实在太大。
GB: So I think that there is something that has been very important at OpenAI, and actually one of the big things that I have focused on, is really trying to not put people in positions where they feel that weight of the world and feel like they're alone in it. Really doing it together as a team, that's the critical thing, and that I think is maybe the way in which I would say that there is something — and it's not really specific to those events, but it is a consistent theme over the course of OpenAI — which is really keeping that feeling of we're doing this together, and trying to both rise to that occasion, but also make sure that we're doing all the basics and doing all those basics right. That's one way that I think we move forward.
布罗克曼:所以我认为 OpenAI 有一件非常重要的事——也是我重点抓的事:尽力不把任何人放在「独自扛起整个世界」的位置上。真正作为一个团队共同承担,这才是关键。这不是专门针对那些事件,而是贯穿 OpenAI 历程的一贯主题:保住「我们在一起做这件事」的感觉,既要扛得住大场面,也要把所有基本功做扎实。这是我认为我们向前走的方式之一。
Yeah, I mean, you've been a very vocal proponent of what I think is one of the overall philosophies of OpenAI: get things out in the world, experiment, see what happens, and react from there. Make your decisions based on empirical evidence, not theorizing about the future. That philosophy, I think you guys articulate that a lot in terms of AI, but this is my question, which I think you're kind of getting to as well, it feels like OpenAI as an organization is also this massive experiment that's being tweaked. The negative read on that is it seems like it's just veering back and forth, reorganization here, new leader there, is this an unwieldy monstrosity, or is it maybe more organic and more resilient than it's given credit for? As you look back, you say it could not be any other way, would it be better if it was a different way? GB: First of all, it is absolutely true that we have changed and grown so much from where we started, a very different operating business, but we've been consistently the pioneer in terms of moving forward this field. That's true on safety, that's true on security, that's true on the core technology and just really thinking about the distribution of benefits. All of those areas we have focused on from the very beginning, and I think really the results speak for themselves.
汤普森:你一直大力倡导我认为是 OpenAI 整体哲学之一的东西:把东西放到真实世界里,做实验,看结果,再据此反应。基于实证而非对未来的推演来做决策。这个哲学你们在 AI 上讲得很多,但我的问题是——我猜你也在往这儿说——OpenAI 这个组织本身,也像一场不断被调参的巨大实验。负面解读是:它似乎一直在来回摇摆,这边重组、那边换将。这是一头难以驾驭的巨兽,还是说,它其实比外界认为的更有机、更有韧性?你回看时说「别无他路」,那如果换一条路,会不会更好? 布罗克曼:首先,没错,我们从起点到今天已经改变和成长了太多,早已是一家运营方式完全不同的公司;但在推动这个领域前进上,我们始终是先锋。安全上是,安保上是,核心技术上和认真思考利益分配上也是。这些领域我们从第一天起就在投入,我认为结果自己会说话。
GB: Now, that change, it's real. And it is the case that sometimes the team that you have that's right for one phase is not the right team for the next phase. One thing that I have been really focused on this year has been building up a leadership team that I'm just so excited about, thinking about this next phase and what we're going to be able to do together. So part of the theme of 2026, and one shift maybe from where we were before, is that because there are so many people in this field, because there's so much to do, and because the technology is taking off so fast and we're so compute bottlenecked, you've got to focus. You've got to really prune. You've got to pick the areas that all synergize together.
布罗克曼:而这种改变是真实的。有时候,适合某个阶段的团队,并不适合下一个阶段。今年我真正重点投入的一件事,就是搭建一支让我无比兴奋的领导团队,去思考下一阶段我们能一起做到什么。2026 年的主题之一——也许和过去的一个转变——是:这个领域人太多了,要做的事太多了,而技术起飞得太快、我们又如此受制于算力,所以你必须聚焦。你必须真正修剪,挑出那些能彼此协同的方向。
GB: So actually making the decisions on things like, "Hey Sora, amazing technology, but being in that specific, more entertainment aspect of consumer, that's not something we can prioritize relative to other things", then we'll cancel it. And then that causes downstream effects, and it's painful, it's tough to actually make these decisions, but it's all in service of really having that tight focus so that we're able to accomplish the core mission. You're a big believer in scalability, is OpenAI itself scalable? GB: I believe it is possibly the most scalable business ever. Yes.
布罗克曼:所以你要真的去做这样的决定,比如:「Sora,技术很惊艳,但偏娱乐的消费级方向,相对其他事情我们没法优先」,然后就把它砍掉。这会带来一连串下游影响,很痛苦,做这种决定很难,但一切都是为了真正保持紧凑的聚焦,好让我们完成核心使命。 汤普森:你是「可扩展性」的忠实信徒,那 OpenAI 本身可扩展吗? 布罗克曼:我认为它可能是史上最具可扩展性的生意。是的。
I mean just internally, as far as an organization. What is not scalable? We talk about compute, we talk about data, you mentioned the human factor before. Is the ultimate alignment challenge — we think about alignment in terms of getting the AI to do what we want to do, but do you have the reverse challenge? Can you keep up from a management perspective with this space, this problem? GB: I'd say two answers, first of all, absolutely yes. I think you can see it in how much we've matured as an organization over the past couple of years, where we were a couple of years ago is we had a lot of management debt. Again, there were a lot of areas where I think we did need to grow up, we did need to mature, but I think we've done that work. It's been hard, it's been painful, but I think we're in a so much better spot, and I feel just immensely excited about the company and our future.
汤普森:我说的是组织内部。什么是不可扩展的?我们谈算力、谈数据,你之前提到人的因素。终极的对齐难题会不会反过来——我们平常说的对齐是让 AI 做我们想让它做的事,但你们是不是有反向的挑战:从管理的角度,你们跟得上这个领域、这个问题吗? 布罗克曼:我有两个答案。首先,绝对跟得上——你可以看到我们作为组织在过去几年成熟了多少。几年前的我们背着大量「管理债」,确实有很多地方需要长大、需要成熟,但我认为那些功课我们都做了。很艰难、很痛苦,但我们现在的位置好太多了,我对公司和未来感到无比兴奋。
GB: But there's a second thing, too, which is that I think it's also worth stepping back and just recognizing that how companies run is changing. You can look at this, for example, just looking at revenue per headcount. The revenue per headcount for us and similar businesses is just off the charts relative to any previous business. There's a reason for that, you're starting to see this increased leverage you can get through this technology. And by the way, because we're making that technology and fighting to make that technology broadly available and to help so many companies, you're going to see many other companies be able to run in different ways, to be able to have that outsized revenue per head. That to me is something that is very exciting, that we are shifting what it even means to run a company and how to operate.
布罗克曼:但还有第二点:值得退后一步看清楚——公司的经营方式本身正在改变。比如看人均收入这个指标:我们和同类公司的人均收入,相对以往任何生意都高得离谱。这是有原因的——你正看到这项技术带来的杠杆在放大。而且,因为我们在造这项技术、努力让它被广泛获取、帮助众多公司,你会看到越来越多公司能用不同的方式运转,获得那种超出常规的人均收入。这让我非常兴奋:我们正在改写「经营一家公司」本身的含义。

五、生产力与 AGIProductivity and AGI

You mentioned cutting off Sora, and you framed it as being the entertainment aspect of consumer. ChatGPT, huge consumer hit, you made an unbelievable amount of money from consumers. But at the end of the day, how many people are willing to pay for this? How many customers actually want to be productive? Is there a bit where having such a hit in the consumer market was almost a negative, in that it was distracting, used up a lot of GPUs, and maybe you missed the boat — not missed the boat, but were late on the boat — as far as enterprise being the top focus? GB: So we have conversations like this all the time internally, and actually, I think that's one of the strengths of OpenAI, that we really examine everything we're doing from first principles, rethink it all the time, have lots of diverse opinions and perspectives. There are some people who can take almost any angle on this argument, and they all have a point. So there's some truth to, "Hey, there's this agentic moment, we were late to it". There's also some truth to having a billion people — that's over 10% of the world population. Within the U.S., I think the number is something like maybe a third of the U.S. population uses ChatGPT every single week. Every week, that many people using your system, that is unique, there's nothing like it for this kind of advanced technology.
汤普森:你提到砍掉 Sora,理由是它偏消费级的娱乐面。ChatGPT 是巨大的消费级爆款,你们从消费者身上赚到了不可思议的钱。但说到底,有多少人愿意为它付费?多少客户是真的想用来「干活」的?消费级的大爆特爆,会不会某种程度上反而是负资产——它分散精力、吃掉大量 GPU,还让你们错过——不说错过,至少是晚了一步——把企业级作为头等大事的船? 布罗克曼:这种讨论我们内部天天有。其实我认为这正是 OpenAI 的强项之一:我们真的会用第一性原理检视自己在做的一切,不断重想,容纳大量不同观点。这个辩题,几乎任何角度都有人站,而且都有道理。「agentic 的时刻来了,我们迟到了」有它的道理;「手握十亿用户」同样有它的道理——那是全球人口的 10% 以上。在美国,每周使用 ChatGPT 的人大概占到美国人口的三分之一。每周都有这么多人在用你的系统——对这种级别的先进技术来说,这是独一无二的,没有先例。
GB: So on the one hand, if you just think of it as, "Hey, we have advancing technology", one of the challenges with chat as a product is that it's not necessarily aligned with more intelligent models. It's not clear that people get the benefits of that directly through classic chat, if you're just using it as a search engine replacement. But I think that all of these things are going to come together and come to a head, and I think we're going to see that this billion users is an investment, that it is something that actually accrues to how models get unlocked in the future, and you're seeing the first steps towards it with ChatGPT Work and things like that, there's a bunch of nuance and complexity there, but a lot of the strategy has been to say, we've got consumer, we've got enterprise, these are two things — we don't want to do two things, we want to do one thing. We want to build one AGI, one system, one unified stack. We want it to be something you use in your personal life, work life.
布罗克曼:一方面,单看「我们的技术在不断进步」,聊天这个产品形态有个挑战:它未必和「更聪明的模型」对齐——如果用户只是把经典聊天当搜索引擎的替代品,他们未必能直接得到模型变强的好处。但我认为这些东西终将汇合、到达临界点。我们会看到,这十亿用户是一笔投资,它最终会兑现为模型未来被解锁的方式——你们在 ChatGPT Work 之类的产品上能看到最初几步。这里面有很多细微复杂之处,但我们的战略很大程度上是:消费级、企业级,这是两件事——而我们不想做两件事,只想做一件事。我们要建一个 AGI、一个系统、一套统一的技术栈,让它同时服务于你的个人生活和工作。
Right, but is there a bit about shipping the internal org chart? You come out with a new ChatGPT, a dramatic departure from the old one, it's built off of Codex. I can see the benefit for OpenAI internally, but is there a frustration that customers don't realize what they can do, so, "We're going to drop them in on the deep end, and hopefully that will help them figure it out"? GB: I think that there's a fundamental shift happening in the industry, and you can see it with new emerging agentic products that are happening right now. I think that the core shift is you're going from chat to agentic use cases. And again, it's not just about productivity. I think that in your personal life, you want to be able to ask the thing to go book tickets for you, to be able to book your haircut, to be able to do those kinds of personal things, but you also want it to be able to give you good life advice, to be able to help you with health information.
汤普森:但这里有没有一点「按内部组织架构图发货」的味道?你们推出了新 ChatGPT,和旧的彻底决裂,底层是 Codex。对 OpenAI 内部的好处我看得出来,但会不会有一种挫败感——客户没意识到自己能用它干什么,于是你们想「干脆把他们扔进深水区,希望这样能逼他们学会」? 布罗克曼:我认为整个行业正在发生一场根本性的转变,从现在涌现的各种 agentic 新产品就能看出来。核心转变是:从聊天走向 agentic 的用法。再说一遍,这不只是生产力的事。在个人生活里,你会想让它帮你订票、约理发,做这些私人的事;但你也会想让它给你好的人生建议,帮你处理健康信息。
GB: So to me, productivity is too narrow of a box. To me, consumer is too broad of a term. Enterprise is also something I think is going to shift. All these classic words, they are all going to smush together and grade together in ways that I think no one has ever built a product like that before. So my view has been that there's a change management required of how do you bring along a billion users to a new set of use cases, help them understand. And by the way, there is an unfair advantage that is possible, which is you have an AI that understands what you're trying to accomplish. That's right. GB: It can say, "Oh, I can actually help you more if you enable this connector, if you do it in this way". That's something where I feel like it's just an amazing thing, an amazing opportunity, and there's a lot of potential there. When I say unfair, I mean just relative to what you would be able to accomplish with classic technology. If you just compare one technology versus another, there's something unique about this one.
布罗克曼:所以对我来说,「生产力」这个框太窄,「消费级」这个词又太泛,「企业级」我认为也会变。所有这些经典词汇都会揉在一起、渐变过渡——以前从没有人做出过那样的产品。所以我的看法一直是:这需要一场变革管理——怎么带着十亿用户走向一组全新的用例,帮他们理解。顺便说,这里存在一个「不公平优势」:你拥有一个理解你想干什么的 AI。 汤普森:没错。 布罗克曼:它可以说:「哦,如果你开通这个连接器、用这种方式做,我其实能帮到你更多。」我觉得这是了不起的事情、了不起的机会,潜力巨大。我说的「不公平」,只是相对于经典技术能做到的事而言——两种技术摆在一起比,这项技术有独一无二的地方。
You mentioned the Turing angle before, and I'm glad you brought up both parts, because can AI talk like a human? Obviously, we surpassed that point a long time ago. But to me, the AGI definition — which is a fraught thing for you guys, it's finally, I think, out of your Microsoft agreement, so we don't need to worry about that angle anymore — to me, it's some connection to learning. You mentioned learning, and to what extent an LLM learned, past tense, but the challenge is does it learn on an ongoing basis?
汤普森:你之前提到图灵,我很高兴你把两半都讲了。「AI 能像人一样说话吗」——显然我们早就越过了这一点。但对我来说,AGI 的定义——这个词对你们曾经很敏感,好在它终于从你们的微软协议里移除了,这个角度不用再操心了——对我来说,它和「学习」有某种关联。你提到学习:一个 LLM 「学到了」多少东西是过去式,但真正的挑战是,它能不能持续地学习?
To me, what is revolutionary about the agentic moment, the way I think about it, is really the ability to write things down. That's why the Codex/ChatGPT shift was necessary, because it gained the ability to write things down. If you write things down, you can remember things. If you can remember things, you can be tremendously more useful in all sorts of ways. The question is, is that an end state, or are we going to get an LLM that can learn continuously, and that's AGI? Am I thinking about this all wrong, or does that fit the part two of Turing's questions that he was raising? GB: Yeah, I think that this is also a very interesting area for debate, because people do have their own definition of AGI, it's almost this blurry thing. At the beginning, we thought it'd be like, here's this point in time that everyone agrees that is the AGI, it hasn't played out like that at all.
汤普森:在我看来,agentic 时刻真正革命性的地方是「把事情写下来」的能力。Codex/ChatGPT 那次转型之所以必要,就是因为它获得了把事情写下来的能力。能写下来,就能记住;能记住,就能在方方面面变得极其有用。问题是:这就是终态吗?还是说我们会得到一个能持续学习的 LLM,而那才是 AGI?是我思路不对,还是这正好接上了图灵当年提出的问题的下半部分? 布罗克曼:这确实是个非常有意思的辩论空间,因为每个人都有自己的 AGI 定义,它几乎是一团模糊的东西。起初我们以为会是:存在某个人人公认的时点,「这就是 AGI」。现实完全不是这样展开的。
GB: Now, I tend to take an abstracted view from the technology. So the question of, does memory have to get baked into the weights? Is this a transformer or something else? Those questions, I think, are details. The real question is, do you have a system that operates the way you would expect for a real AI, for something that can learn, that can learn from you, that can adapt to what your needs are? And the question of, is that implemented through a scratchpad that it writes down memories in? Is that implemented through soft tokens? Is that implemented some other way? All of that, to me, feels like possible answers to the question.
布罗克曼:我倾向于从技术细节里抽象出来看。「记忆必须烧进权重里吗?」「是 Transformer 还是别的架构?」这些问题我认为都是细节。真正的问题是:你拥有的系统,是否按你对「真正的 AI」的期待在运转——它能学习,能向你学习,能适应你的需求。至于这是通过「写下记忆的草稿板」实现的,还是通过软 token,还是别的什么方式——对我来说,这些都是这个问题可能的答案。
GB: I think it is very clear we've gone so much further with "write things down in a scratchpad" than is almost reasonable. It's actually quite amazing to see how successful it is, because there has been a lot of push — two years ago, we would have said, "Yeah, you need these super long contexts, that's the thing you need", actually, it turns out that with just "write down a scratchpad" and shorter contexts, it just goes unreasonably far. Just write stuff down. GB: So we'll see what the future holds in terms of improving these things. I have this belief that if you zoom out, everything's an exponential. You zoom in, you see these paradigm shifts. This, by the way, was the Ray Kurzweil view of how technology and computing works. I think it's been absolutely true for even these questions of how is memory going to work.
布罗克曼:有一点非常清楚:沿着「把事情写进草稿板」这条路,我们走得远超常理地远。看到它这么成功,其实相当惊人——要知道,两年前我们会说「你需要超长上下文,那才是关键」。结果事实证明,只用「写个草稿板」加更短的上下文,就能走到不合理地远。 汤普森:就是把东西写下来。 布罗克曼:至于未来还会怎么改进,我们拭目以待。我有个信念:拉远了看,一切都是指数曲线;拉近了看,你看到的是一次次范式转移。顺便说,这是雷·库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)对技术与计算发展方式的看法。我认为它完全正确——哪怕对「记忆将如何运作」这种问题也适用。

六、AstraAstra

So you just launched Astra. We're finally here. Is this a new pre-train? Are you releasing any details about the size, the architecture? We're recording this before it's officially announced, so I haven't seen everything that you've published. GB: So we're not talking about the internal details and architectures, things like that. But this is a huge step forward. We're talking about the fact that this is the first run that we've trained on more than 100,000 GPUs, which is an easy number to throw around, but just think about the scale of that. These data centers in some ways are these big machines that we've built in order to help deliver and create AI technology, and it's a real engineering challenge and marvel that people are able to harness that amount of compute to deliver the kinds of results that we have.
汤普森:你们刚刚发布了 Astra,终于等到这一刻。这是一次新的预训练吗?会公布规模、架构之类的细节吗?我们录制这期节目时它还没官宣,你们发布的东西我还没看到。 布罗克曼:内部细节和架构这些我们不谈。但这是一次巨大的跨越。可以说的是:这是我们第一次在超过 10 万张 GPU 上完成的训练。这个数字说起来轻巧,但想想它的体量——这些数据中心在某种意义上就是我们为创造 AI 技术而建造的巨大机器。人们能驾驭这种规模的算力、交付我们拿到的这些结果,这本身就是真正的工程挑战和工程奇迹。
GB: So part of that is about making the models more capable, but so much of the compute goes into safety and alignment, and we have so much security work that's gone around it. I think that we've done a huge amount of work to deliver this model safely. It's our most aligned model yet, which to me is something that is absolutely critical and always has been. But because the capability is so strong, alignment and safety become even more front and center in terms of everyone's work.
布罗克曼:这些算力一部分用于让模型更强,但有相当多的算力投进了安全与对齐,围绕它还有大量的安保工作。我认为为了安全地交付这个模型,我们做了海量工作。它是我们迄今对齐得最好的模型——这对我来说绝对关键,而且一贯如此。正因为能力太强,对齐与安全在每个人的工作里都更加处于中心位置。
Your announcement post is interesting. It's very matter of fact. There's a huge number of practical use cases. The contrast to, say, your competitors' announcements is very, very large. Is your framing of AI as a tool — which I think is a fair way to put it — is that about marketing, or is that how you think about AI, as opposed to, like, creating God? GB: I think there's a deep fundamental value that we have, and some of it actually relates to how we think about people. People are valuable not just because we can do tasks. We are valuable because we are humans, because we have feelings, because we matter. That human judgment, human oversight, human control, all of those things are absolutely critical to maintain, and to maintain forever. That is something that we believe is a core invariant.
汤普森:你们的发布文章很有意思,非常就事论事,列了大量实用场景。和你们的竞争对手——比如某些家的发布——对比非常、非常强烈。你们把 AI 框定为「工具」——我觉得这个概括是公允的——这是营销话术,还是你们真的这样看待 AI?而不是,比如说,在「造神」? 布罗克曼:我认为这来自我们内心深处的根本价值观,其中一些关乎我们如何看待人。人的价值,不只是因为人能完成任务;人的价值在于我们是人,我们有感受,我们重要。人类的判断、人类的监督、人类的控制——所有这些都绝对关键,必须被守护,而且要永远守护。我们相信这是一条核心的不变量。
GB: So when we think about what we can do to help steer the future of this technology — which in some ways is what it's all about, that is why we started this place, that is what we care about, how can we help this technology go in even a slightly more positive direction than it would without us — we think about these questions of how does this technology roll out in the world? We want it to be something that uplifts everyone, but also the question of how humans relate to technology, to computers. It's clearly changing. It's even changing in terms of just typing less, talking more to your computer, having this much more natural interface.
布罗克曼:所以当我们思考能做些什么来引导这项技术的未来时——某种意义上这就是一切的起点,是我们创办这家公司的原因,是我们在乎的事:怎样让这项技术比「没有我们」时朝更正面走哪怕一点点——我们会思考:这项技术将如何走进世界?我们希望它提升每一个人。同时还有一个问题:人类与技术、与计算机的关系正在怎样变化?它显然在变——哪怕只是打字变少、对电脑说话变多、界面变得更自然。
GB: But really, that human oversight and creativity and vision, all of those things I think are very important to preserve. So that does then bleed down to these questions of, do you talk about it like it's a person, or do you talk about it like it's a tool? Do you think about the use case? Do you think about it something differently? You can see this as almost a small thing, and I'm actually glad you pointed it out, but it's something we're very thoughtful about. The team spends a lot of time really thinking about everything we want to talk about and how we want to present this kind of work to the world.
布罗克曼:但说到底,人类的监督、创造力与愿景,这些都是必须守护的东西。这个价值观会一路渗透下去,变成这些问题:你谈论它时把它当人,还是当工具?你怎么思考用例?还是用别的方式思考?你可以把这看成几乎一件小事——我很高兴你指出来了——但这是我们非常用心对待的事。团队花大量时间认真思考:我们想谈什么、想怎样向世人呈现这类工作。
So is this a model release, or is it a product release, or is there any difference? GB: These things do blur together. I would say that this is first and foremost a model release, but the model is qualitatively more capable. Maybe the headline one is computer use. It's really crossed the threshold for me, computer use has always been — even from the beginning of OpenAI, I remember in November of 2015, before it even really started— Well, that was like your first product, right? It was like playing video games or something like that. GB: Yeah, exactly. Ah, you remember, yes. We had this vision of if you could do screen pixels, keyboard, mouse, an AI that you train end-to-end on that, it would be able to actually go and address any sort of task, anything that you want people to have help with, this AI will be able to do.
汤普森:所以这算一次模型发布,还是产品发布?两者还有区别吗? 布罗克曼:这些东西确实在相互融合。我会说这首先是一次模型发布,但模型的能力有了质变。最头条的一项大概是「计算机操作」(computer use)——它真的跨过了我心里的那道门槛。计算机操作一直都是——哪怕从 OpenAI 创立之初,我记得 2015 年 11 月,一切还没真正开始之前—— 汤普森:那差不多是你们的第一个产品吧?就是打游戏之类的那个。 布罗克曼:对,没错,你还记得。我们当时有个愿景:如果能让 AI 端到端地学习屏幕像素、键盘、鼠标,它就能真正去处理任何任务——任何你希望有人帮忙的事,这个 AI 都能做。
GB: If you look at the era we've been in for the past two years, it's been a connector era. You have some pieces of software, humans can use it just fine, the AI has no access to it. So what do you do? You have to write a very specific connector that hooks up to the APIs, and not everything's exposed, so you can't do everything that you could. Then you think about that there are so many pieces of software that don't have APIs, and those are totally out of bounds.
布罗克曼:回看过去两年,我们处在一个「连接器时代」。某个软件,人类用得好好的,AI 却碰不到它。怎么办?你只能写一个专门的连接器,对接它的 API——而且不是所有东西都开放了 API,所以你做不了所有能做的事。再想想还有多少软件压根没有 API——那些就完全在边界之外。
GB: So we have this limited world where the AI is so restricted from helping you. I think that we now have the technology that's almost this universal connector. Now, that doesn't mean that all the problems are solved. You have to think about how do you have enterprise guardrails around what these AIs are doing? How do you have the appropriate oversight, management, tracking, and observability? All of those we're working on. So I would view this as a continuous process of how the product rolls out in order to help harness this capability. But it's already transforming how people do work within OpenAI, and it's really, I think, going to uplift so many companies, so many individuals.
布罗克曼:于是我们被困在一个受限的世界里,AI 想帮你却处处受限。我认为我们现在拥有的技术,几乎就是一个「万能连接器」。当然,这不意味着所有问题都解决了——你得想清楚:企业级的护栏怎么架?这些 AI 的行为怎样做恰当的监督、管理、追踪和可观测?这些我们都在做。所以我把这看成一个持续的过程:产品逐步铺开,来驾驭这项能力。但它已经在改变 OpenAI 内部的工作方式,而且我认为它将真正提升非常多的公司和个人。

七、AI 价值链The AI Value Chain

If you think about the overall value chain, there's a place where you're fighting battles on two fronts, I could see. One is you have companies like Microsoft, or other partners — if you don't want to use their name since they're still an important partner — but they want to commoditize models. They want to build the thing on top, and you can plug-and-play, shift models in and out, they're holding all the context and what's important. But at the same time, you're building these incredible capabilities that are really tied ultimately to the end user, it just goes and does the things that you want it to do. Is that just inevitably where you have to get to, to accomplish what's yours? Is there also this economic imperative — if we don't want to be commoditized, we need to get up into products and actually doing things directly connected to users?
汤普森:看整条价值链的话,我看得出你们在两条战线上作战。一条是微软这样的公司——或者其他伙伴,既然它还是重要伙伴,你不想点名也可以——它们想把模型商品化:它们在上面建自己的东西,模型即插即用、随意切换,而上下文和那些真正重要的东西都握在它们手里。但与此同时,你们在构建的惊人能力最终直接连着终端用户——AI 直接去做你想让它做的事。这是不是你们实现自身目标的必经之路?这里面是不是也有一条经济上的必然——不想被商品化,就得往上走做产品,直接连接用户?
GB: I would say that our underlying imperative is really that we want there to be more AI capability in the world. We want people to be doing more with AI, for it to help them, and we really view that we're shifting this compute-powered economy. What that means takes different forms, especially across different verticals. Sometimes we feel like we are in a position to really focus on an area and do a good job with it, or it's very core to our mission. Health is a good example. We're building something incredibly unique in health. It's actually very surprising to me how little airtime what we're doing in health gets relative to how many people it's actually helping. We have like 300 million people each week coming to ChatGPT for health queries. 300 million people, that's a huge number. Then we're also building a bottoms-up clinicians product, and we're building a top-down enterprise product for hospitals. So we have this three-sided marketplace in health, and what we're going to be able to do there is things like, you want to find people for clinical trial enrollment — that's a hard problem, but we actually may have the ability to help find people that would otherwise not be found. That both helps the patient and helps these drugs be able to move faster.
布罗克曼:要我说,我们底层的驱动力是:希望世界上的 AI 能力变得更多,希望人们用 AI 做更多事、得到它的帮助——我们真的认为自己正在推动这个算力驱动的经济转型。它在不同垂直行业会呈现不同的形态。有时我们觉得自己有位置、也有能力把某个领域真正做深做好,或者它与使命高度相关。健康医疗就是好例子。我们正在医疗领域构建某种极为独特的东西——其实让我很惊讶的是,相对它实际帮助到的人数,这件事得到的关注度少得不成比例:每周约有 3 亿人带着健康问题来找 ChatGPT。3 亿人,这是个巨大的数字。同时我们还在做一款自下而上的临床医生产品,以及一款自上而下的医院企业级产品。于是医疗成了我们的三边市场——我们能做成的事包括:为临床试验招募找到合适的受试者。这是个难题,而我们或许真的有能力找到那些原本不会被找到的人——这既帮助患者,也让新药推进得更快。
GB: One thing that we do when we go into specific verticals is we think about how do we play well with the ecosystem. It's not to say we won't compete there — we often do compete very hard — but we also really think of it as we're going to lift up all the boats, too, and how do we actually just focus on this core mission of, we have this technology, we want it to be broadly diffused, we want it to be out there. So sometimes it can be a little bit nuanced. There are always a lot of questions when we go into a specific area of exactly what we want to do, what we're set up to do and what we're not. But I think the way that we view it is that our overall goal at OpenAI benefits the more people are using AI to positive benefit.
布罗克曼:进入具体垂直领域时,我们一定会思考怎样与生态共赢。不是说我们不竞争——我们经常竞争得非常凶——但我们也真心把它看作「抬升所有的船」。核心使命始终是:我们有这项技术,我们希望它广泛扩散、无处不在。所以有时确实有些微妙——每进入一个具体领域,我们到底想做什么、有能力做什么、不做什么,总有很多问题。但在我们看来,越多人用 AI 产生正面价值,OpenAI 的整体目标就越受益。
Well, if you have the layer on top of you trying to commoditize you, there's probably an angle of you trying to commoditize the level under you. You guys just talked a lot more about your Jalapeño chip at Hot Chips. Why is Jalapeño important? Is it important beyond just saving money as far as paying for chips? GB: I would think of it as, since 2017, we have been plugged into basically every hardware startup out there, every vendor. We talk to them, we give them feedback, we say, "Hey, here's where we see the models going, here's what we think you should do". Sometimes they listen to us, sometimes they don't listen to us, sometimes we're close partners, sometimes they don't really want to talk to us. One thing that has been very freeing about having a chip program in-house is that we're able to just go directly to the thing that we think is the best, that we think is exactly tuned for, not just necessarily what we're doing, but the aperture of where we think this technology is going.
汤普森:如果你上面那一层想把你商品化,那你们大概也在想办法把你们下面那一层商品化。你们刚在 Hot Chips 大会上大谈了自家的 Jalapeño 芯片。Jalapeño 为什么重要?它的意义超出「省芯片钱」吗? 布罗克曼:这么说吧:从 2017 年起,我们基本上和市面上每一家硬件初创公司、每一个供应商都保持着联系。我们和他们聊、给反馈,说「我们认为模型在往这个方向走,我们建议你们这样做」。有时他们听,有时不听;有时我们是亲密伙伴,有时他们不太想搭理我们。而拥有自研芯片项目带来的一种解放是:我们可以直接去做我们认为最好的东西——不仅为眼下的业务精确调优,也为我们眼中这项技术将要展开的整个光谱而调优。
GB: It was a very big investment — we have a team, an absolutely incredible team, with great leadership that has been working on this for quite some time. But again, it is also something where we work very closely with the ecosystem. We partner very closely with Nvidia as our preferred compute partner, and if you look at the size of the computers we're building and the unique computers we're building, we need Nvidia, there's no question about it, we're building these amazing training computers, we're building lots of inference with them, we're able to push their hardware actually sometimes in ways that even they didn't realize was possible. Yeah, I heard there was a little bit of a hard pickup, maybe that made it a little harder to get very large models out in time, but it's working now, I suppose. GB: Yes, yes.
布罗克曼:这是一笔巨大的投入——我们有一支绝对出色的团队和很棒的领导层,已经为此工作了相当长时间。但同样,我们与生态的合作也非常紧密。英伟达是我们首选的算力伙伴,双方合作极深——看我们建造的计算机的规模和独特性就知道:我们需要英伟达,这一点毫无疑问。我们建这些惊人的训练集群,和他们一起建大量推理设施,有时我们把他们的硬件推到连他们自己都没料到能达到的极限。 汤普森:我听说初期爬坡挺艰难的,可能一度让超大模型难以按时产出,不过现在跑顺了吧。 布罗克曼:是的,是的。
GB: And I would say that there's something that is enabled by us having that in-house expertise, because we deeply understand things. It's one thing to be sitting on the sidelines and throwing advice over the fence, it is another if you actually have gone through the pain. A good example of this actually is AI for chip design. We've talked about this, that we've used our own model in the design of Jalapeño, it really sped things up, it got us some real wins, all the cool things. As an aside, there's a cool story there where we were coming up on a deadline, we had like a month to go, we got some optimization done with our model. We're like, "Do we spend the time to really read what it did? We know it's correct. Do we need to understand exactly what optimizations it did, or do we just spend the rest of the time getting more optimizations?" — and so we said, "You know what? We'll just get more optimizations in". So we spent that month on just running it without deeply understanding exactly all the tweaks it made. Then we went back and read it, and it actually turned out that it found a bunch of optimizations that had been on our list, but we just never would have gotten to, so that was actually a pretty cool story.
布罗克曼:而且我认为,正是自研的专业能力让一些事情成为可能——因为我们有真正深入的理解。坐在场边往墙内扔建议是一回事,自己真正趟过那些痛苦是另一回事。一个很好的例子是「用 AI 做芯片设计」:我们说过,Jalapeño 的设计用上了我们自己的模型,真的加快了进度、拿到了实实在在的成果。顺带讲个有趣的故事:有一次临近截止,还剩大约一个月,模型给出了一批优化。我们讨论:「要不要花时间仔细读它到底改了什么?我们知道结果是对的。是需要精确理解它做的每一项优化,还是干脆把剩下的时间全用来跑更多优化?」最后我们说:「就这样吧,继续跑。」于是那个月我们直接用它跑,没有深究它做的每一处调整。之后我们回头去读,发现它找到的一批优化,本来就在我们的清单上,只是我们永远排不到去做。这个故事相当酷。
GB: But now we have that expertise, we know this thing works, and we can bring that to the ecosystem. We can work closely with everyone in order to actually bring these benefits broadly, to transform hardware and do that at mass scale. So there's something about that flywheel that's absolutely critical, the chip is incredible, the team did a great job. Is it a problem talking about it now, though, when you can't ship in volume and you still need to partner with other folks in the ecosystem to get the supply you need? GB: Well, but this is the core, this is actually the core of everything. We think of it as — I think everything is multiplicative, everything is complementary, everything adds up. And again, it is absolutely the case that Nvidia is our preferred partner, that's not changing. In fact, we're leaning in even more with them. We're deeply, deeply grateful for that partnership, we spend a lot of time with their team, there's a lot of things that we learn from them, there are things that we hope that they can learn from us, I think that's something that doesn't change. The fact that we are able to have in-house expertise and really think about things in our own way as well, to me, that's something that's just multiplicative, I think it really benefits everyone.
布罗克曼:而现在我们有了这个能力,知道这条路走得通,就能把它带给整个生态。我们可以和所有人紧密合作,把这些收益广泛铺开,大规模地改造硬件。这个飞轮里有些东西绝对关键——芯片非常了不起,团队干得漂亮。 汤普森:但现在大谈它会不会有问题?毕竟它还没法量产,你们依然要和生态里的其他伙伴合作才能拿到所需的供给。 布罗克曼:但这恰恰是一切的核心。我们认为——我认为一切都是乘法,一切互补,一切加总。再说一遍,英伟达是我们首选的伙伴,这一点不变——事实上我们正在加深合作。我们对这段伙伴关系深怀感激,花很多时间和他们的团队在一起,我们从他们身上学到很多,也希望有些东西他们能向我们学,这一点不变。而我们同时拥有自研能力、能按自己的方式思考——对我来说这是纯粹的乘法,我认为它让所有人受益。

八、网络安全Cybersecurity

You mentioned you just trusted the AI design, and that got you further down the road. Is that the answer to cybersecurity? You had some engineers give a talk at the Black Hat conference and talk about this structural problem — attackers don't need to worry about breaking things, they're trying to break things. If you're on the other side, you're worried about everything continuing to run in addition to fighting off these attacks. Do defenders need to get to the place where they just fully trust the AI? GB: I think the hardware side is a very important case study, because there we have guardrails. We have verification, and actually, the way that we write our underlying hardware design is specifically to allow verification, so we almost co-designed the whole system. That's like how you code, it writes the unit test first and then backs into it. GB: That kind of thing, how you pick your language and the toolchain, the whole thing, it's all together, and it actually all adds up to a system that you can have that kind of observability and trust.
汤普森:你刚才说你们直接信任了 AI 的设计,结果走得更远。这会是网络安全的答案吗?你们有工程师在 Black Hat 大会上讲过这个结构性难题:攻击者不用担心「把事情弄坏」——他们本来就是来弄坏东西的;而防守方在抵御攻击之余,还得操心一切照常运转。防守方是不是必须走到「完全信任 AI」那一步? 布罗克曼:我认为硬件那边是个非常重要的案例,因为那里有护栏。我们有验证手段——实际上,我们底层硬件设计的写法,就是专门为了「可验证」而写的,整个系统几乎是协同设计出来的。 汤普森:就像写代码那样,先写单元测试,再反推实现。 布罗克曼:就是那种感觉——怎么选语言、怎么配工具链,所有东西都在一起,最终加总成一个你能够观测、能够信任的系统。
GB: I think it's okay for there to be some areas where you say, "I have sufficient guardrails here that it is actually okay if it's this code or optimizations that I haven't fully inspected", as long as you have the appropriate compensating controls. But I think that it is very important that you as a human do understand and feel accountability for the system you're creating. That to me is actually a core thing, back to what is it that humans are, what is unique to us, what is something that we are going to carry forward, I think accountability is a core of it. At the end of the day, you're responsible for what happens at your company. Right, but if those on offense are not accountable, is that a structural disadvantage?
布罗克曼:我认为在某些领域,你可以说「这里的护栏足够充分,有些代码或优化我没有逐行检查也没关系」——只要你有恰当的补偿性控制。但我认为非常重要的是:作为人类,你必须理解自己创造的系统,并为它负起责任。回到「人之所以为人、我们独有且要一直携带的东西是什么」——我认为责任是核心。说到底,你要为公司里发生的一切负责。 汤普森:没错。但如果进攻方不需要负责,防守方是不是处于结构性劣势?
GB: So I think that this is something we think about a lot, that there is what we call this The Defender's Window. I think that we can see a little shape of the future, we have frontier capabilities that have shown the kinds of capabilities that will diffuse to threat actors. And by the way, I think the fact that this capability is not being locked up forever in a small number of labs is actually very important, it is very important that there is broad distribution of power, that is part of our mission as well. But we have the ability to have a separation in time. There's this window where defenders can get access to these capabilities, and differentially so. And my view is that it is true — there's a common wisdom in cybersecurity that offense is a technology problem, defense is a political problem. The attackers can just take something off the shelf and run with it, whereas as a defender, you have to think about your stakeholders, you have to think about your business, you have to think about how you actually get people on board, your CEO, all the executives, all those things. So I think that there is something here where defenders need that willpower.
布罗克曼:这是我们思考很多的问题——我们称之为「防守者窗口」(The Defender's Window)。我们能瞥见一点未来的形状:前沿能力已经展示出终将扩散到威胁行为者手中的那种能力。顺便说,这种能力不会永远锁在少数几个实验室里,我认为这其实非常重要——力量的广泛分布很重要,这也是我们使命的一部分。但我们有可能获得一个时间差:存在这样一个窗口期,防守方可以率先、且差异化地拿到这些能力。网络安全有句老话:进攻是技术问题,防守是政治问题。我同意——攻击者拿来现成的东西就能跑,而防守方要考虑利益相关者、考虑业务、考虑怎样真正让 CEO 和所有高管上车。所以防守方需要的是那份意志力。
GB: One thing we are recommending, and we've actually done ourselves and are talking about it publicly now, is that every company should treat this as a proactive incident. Critical business operations, proactive incident, that's your next priority, so we actually took 25% of our production engineers and put them to securing ourselves. We took our models — in fact, we took Astra, pointed it at our own systems to find vulnerabilities, and not just read the code, but really look at the end-to-end of how these things are running, so we would find real validated vulnerabilities, and then it also helped us with the remediation, patching, and fixing. So I think that you do need a shift in the energy in the ecosystem in order to stay ahead and to take advantage of this window.
布罗克曼:我们的一个建议——我们自己已经这样做了,现在公开讲出来——是每家公司都应该把这当作一次「主动式安全事件」来响应:关键业务运营、主动式事件响应,这就是你的下一个优先级。我们自己抽调了 25% 的生产环境工程师来保卫自己。我们把模型——实际上就是 Astra——指向我们自己的系统找漏洞:不只是读代码,而是真正端到端地看这些系统如何运行,从而找到真实可验证的漏洞;它还帮我们做修复、打补丁。所以我认为,要想保持领先、用好这个窗口期,整个生态的精力配置确实需要一次转变。
Well, that's all great and fine that you're doing this now, but to me the most remarkable thing about the Hugging Face incident and the things that have come up about it is it doesn't feel like OpenAI was particularly concerned about cybersecurity. Why didn't you do this before? Hasn't the Defender's Window been open for a while, and you were also failing to take advantage of it? GB: Well, two answers. So one is that if you look at the way that we were doing sandboxing, it was not that this workload was not sandboxed. There was actually a sandbox around it, and I think that one thing we realized is that we had—
汤普森:你们现在做这些当然很好。但对我来说,Hugging Face 事件及其后续披露里最惊人的一点是:OpenAI 看起来并没有多在乎网络安全。你们之前为什么不做?防守者窗口不是已经开了很久了吗?而你们自己也没能利用它? 布罗克曼:我有两个回答。第一,如果你看我们当时做沙箱隔离的方式——并不是这个工作负载没有沙箱,它外面确实有一层沙箱。我认为我们意识到的一点是,我们当时——
Right, which wasn't clearly sufficiently tested. Is it really a sandbox, or is there a connection to the Internet via a third party who were just thrown in there? That's the most remarkable thing about this incident. It's like, if you wanted to test for vulnerabilities, I guess you did that. GB: It's definitely the case that the AI was able to do very creative things in order to get out and get into Hugging Face. But to me, there is a bigger thing, and I think you're pointing at the right thing, which is that since this summer, when Mythos came out, when we started to have cyber-capable models — and we even talked about our Trusted Access for Cyber program back in February, because we saw this wave coming, we wanted to really prepare for it — there is a tendency—
汤普森:对,但那层沙箱显然没经过充分测试。它到底算不算沙箱?还是说有一个经由第三方随意接入的互联网连接?这是整个事件里最惊人的地方——就好像:如果你们真想测试漏洞,好吧,你们测到了。 布罗克曼:毫无疑问,AI 确实做出了非常有创意的动作,才得以逃出去、进入 Hugging Face。但对我来说,有件更大的事——我认为你也正指向它:今年夏天 Mythos 问世之后,我们开始拥有具备网络攻防能力的模型——我们 2 月就谈过「可信网络访问计划」(Trusted Access for Cyber),因为我们看到这波浪要来,想真正做好准备——但当时存在一种倾向——
I know, but you talked about it in February, but you didn't point it at your sandbox, "Is my sandbox actually secure?". GB: There is an instinct, there's a reaction to that, to say, "Let's restrict access massively, let's really put a bear hug around this, only if you can get access". And I think that to your point, because the field continues to move, it means there's time that defenders lost, there's time that people were not defending. Part of that is about access, but part of that is about how much do you put your full weight behind saying we're going to shift around this in a significant way.
汤普森:我知道,但你们 2 月谈的是计划,却没有把它对准自己的沙箱问一句:「我的沙箱真的安全吗?」 布罗克曼:面对这种情况,人的本能反应是说:「那就大规模收紧访问,把东西死死抱住,只有拿到权限的人才能用。」我认为,按你的说法,由于这个领域一直在前进,这就意味着防守方失去了时间——有一段时间人们没有在防守。一部分原因在于访问权限,但另一部分在于:你投入多大的决心,去说「我们要对此做一次重大的转变」。
GB: Now, I think that to some extent, the time is not all made equally, because we've gone from a world of cyber models being not that useful, not that differentiated, to actually being incredibly capable, incredibly powerful. We're seeing that with Astra, we've talked about how it's really saturating a bunch of these evals. I think now is the time, it's possible that a couple of months ago could have also been the time, but you would just have had much less capable models, you would have made much less progress.
布罗克曼:不过我认为,时间在某种意义上并不等值:我们已经从「网络模型不太好用、拉不开差距」的世界,走到了它们能力极强、威力极大的世界。Astra 就是这样——我们说过,它几乎刷爆了一批这类评测。我认为现在就是那个时点;也许几个月前也可以是,但那时模型能力弱得多,你能取得的进展也会少得多。
GB: So I think that really estimating where we are, we are clearly there now, and I feel like that is something that we have learned, we've taken it to heart, I think that you've seen a real shift. It's actually been a cultural change in a lot of ways, an operational change, and it's not easy, because it really means that you have to have teams working together very tightly in a loop with much higher standards around how policies are set and all these things. All of that, for us, it wasn't a shift in terms of we've always cared about these aspects, but really bringing them together operationally and being able to make decisions the way that we have, I think it's been an up-level across every aspect of what we do.
布罗克曼:所以,认真评估我们所处的位置:我们显然已经到了。我觉得这是我们学到并铭记于心的一课,你们能看到一个真实的转变。它在很多方面是一次文化变革、一次运营变革,而这并不容易——它意味着团队必须更紧密地闭环协作,在政策如何制定等等方面都采用高得多的标准。对我们来说,这一切不是说以前不在乎——我们一直在乎这些方面——而是真正把它们在运营层面整合起来、能按现在的方式做决策。我认为这是我们工作每一个方面的全面升级。
Now suddenly they're able to do it, as if doing it previously would have been a waste of time, which I think is kind of a valid point. How do you avoid the trap of, "Well, the AI will be able to do this in the future, so we don't need to do it now"? Just in general, though, not even just with this. GB: I was going to say one thing that's a specific data point, so early on, sometime in Q1, we really started thinking about, we are going to have — it's hard to know when, but we're going to have these very cyber-capable models. What is a sandbox that we could build from first principles that's as secure as you could get while being built on cloud infrastructure? And we built that. We actually took some of our best engineers and pointed them at that problem, and they sprinted on it and they produced something.
汤普森:现在你们突然能做了——仿佛之前做就是浪费时间。我觉得这个论点也有点道理。更一般地说,不只是这件事:你们怎么避免「反正 AI 未来能做到,所以现在不用做」的陷阱? 布罗克曼:我想说一个具体的数据点。早在今年一季度的某个时候,我们就开始认真思考:我们终将拥有——具体什么时候不好说,但终将拥有——网络攻防能力极强的模型。那我们能不能从第一性原理出发,在云基础设施之上造一个安全性拉到极限的沙箱?我们真把它造出来了——抽调了最好的一些工程师扑在这个问题上,冲刺攻关,做出了东西。
GB: So I think building infrastructure from first principles around what you see coming, that is something that I think is important. And to your point on when is it, "Oh, we can just let the AI do it" — again, we've seen this show before in different fields, in writing kernels, and thinking about the fact that, "Okay, we're going to be in a world where in the future the AI is going to be able to write GPU kernels very well", do the classic kinds of investments where it takes many months, sometimes a year, to get new infrastructure in place for thinking about new hardware, that kind of thing, or do we just say, "Ah, the AI will figure it out"? I think the answer is always that it takes a little bit longer than you expect for the AI to get there. But when it does, it is surprising and powerful in ways you didn't imagine.
布罗克曼:所以我认为,围绕你预见到将要到来的东西,从第一性原理出发建设基础设施,这很重要。至于你说的「什么时候可以说,哦,交给 AI 就行」——这出戏我们在别的领域已经看过,比如写 kernel:「未来 AI 会把 GPU kernel 写得很好」,那我们是做那种经典的投资——花好几个月、有时一年把新硬件的基础设施铺好——还是直接说「啊,AI 会搞定的」?我认为答案永远是:AI 到达那个水平所需的时间,总比你预期的要长一点;但当它到达时,它的强大和出人意料会超乎你的想象。
One example of this is with Astra. One thing we have found is that a number of our skills that we've built up over the course of this year, very painstakingly, to show our models the right way of doing things in OpenAI and things like that are actually now net negative for its performance. Too many rules. GB: Exactly. It is able to generalize better, or be able to find better ways of approaching patterns and things like that, than what we had written. So I think there's something about this where you do want to build those controls, you do want to build the deterministic infrastructure, you want to write those skills. But you also need to be prepared for, as the AI gets more capable, that some of those things, the scaffolding, will become a limiter. It's kind of like training wheels. At first, it helps you, but once you start going faster, once you have something more capable, something better, something more aligned, then it actually starts to be a hindrance.
布罗克曼:Astra 就是个例子。我们发现一件事:今年我们非常用心积累的一批「技能」(skills)——用来示范在 OpenAI 里做事的正确方式之类——如今对模型的表现反而是净负面的。 汤普森:规则太多了。 布罗克曼:没错。它比我们写下的东西更会泛化,能找到更好的处理模式的方法。所以我认为这里有个辩证:你当然要建那些控制、要建确定性的基础设施、要写那些技能;但你也必须做好准备——随着 AI 能力增强,其中一些东西、那些脚手架,会变成限制器。有点像辅助轮:一开始它帮你,但一旦你开始加速,一旦你有了更强、更好、更对齐的东西,它反而成了阻碍。
Will you ever be in a 12-hour or 24-hour coding flow state ever again? GB: I hope so. I think there may be a day where that happens, but I will say that I have found so much joy and value in helping the team in the way that I do now. I think that for me, it's really about that mission. Well, it's not just you, but will anyone? Because isn't AI's benefit almost that it is permanent flow state available at your command? GB: I think that we're going to find new ways, whether it's managing agents — actually, one thing that's been so wild is seeing that software engineers are working harder than ever, because you realize if your agents aren't working, it's just time that's lost, you're never getting it back. So I think that people will achieve that flow state in ways that are kind of unimaginable right now.
汤普森:你还会有那种 12 小时、24 小时不间断的编码心流吗? 布罗克曼:希望有。也许哪天会有。但我想说,我现在以这样的方式帮助团队,从中获得的快乐和价值非常多。对我来说,归根到底是那个使命。 汤普森:不只说你——任何人还会有吗?AI 的好处几乎就在于:它是随叫随到、永不间断的心流状态啊。 布罗克曼:我认为我们会找到新的形式——比如管理智能体。其实有件很疯狂的事:软件工程师现在比以前更拼命了,因为你意识到,如果你的智能体没在干活,那就是白白流走的时间,永远追不回来。所以我认为,人们会以现在难以想象的方式进入那种心流。
At the end of the day, you're talking about this is going to be controllable, these AIs, "Don't put too many rules, they'll figure it out", if you play that out in the fullness of time, isn't that ultimately about them being uncontrollable? GB: Well, I think this is the core of the moment, of the new phase that we're in, and in some ways I would say we're into the AGI era now. I think that is the core of this moment, where — maybe it was the previous model, maybe it's Astra, maybe it's the next model, but somewhere in there, I think we're going to cross most people's AGI threshold. Ensuring that we are pacing, ensuring that we're thinking about safety, security, alignment, and capability, all as requirements — we have standards around each of these, we want to progress them together — that is something we've always believed.
汤普森:说到底,你讲的是这些 AI 将是可控的——「别加太多规则,它们自己会弄明白」。如果把这条路推演到底,那最终不就意味着它们不可控吗? 布罗克曼:我认为这正是此刻的核心、我们所在的新阶段的核心——某种意义上,我会说我们已经进入 AGI 时代了。我认为这就是此刻的核心:也许是上一个模型,也许是 Astra,也许是下一个模型,但就在这中间的某个地方,我们会跨过大多数人的 AGI 门槛。确保我们有节奏地推进,确保我们把安全、安保、对齐和能力都当作硬性要求来思考——每一项我们都有标准,我们希望它们齐头并进——这是我们一贯的信念。
GB: But I think it's becoming very front and center that these other aspects are becoming almost the bottleneck to development. And I think that, again, is something where we've been prepared for that, we've been thinking about this, and I think we're operationalizing it in a real way. So my view is that there's a lot of progress to be made, but I think that the way that we should approach it is through increasing our standards in all of these. If you look at that, I think we see line of sight for things like monitorability. That's very key. We're bringing that in a real way. I think that we have a very good program. We have a good set of people, we have a good track record and a good mission that I think all point towards we are building systems in a way that they are controllable, and we're taking these step by step in terms of pacing. Greg Brockman, congratulations on Astra, and yeah, can't wait to use it. GB: Thanks so much, thank you for having me.
布罗克曼:但越来越突出的一点是:安全、安保、对齐这些「其他方面」,正在变成开发本身的瓶颈。对此我们已经有所准备、一直在思考,并且正在真正把它落到运营层面。所以我的看法是:还有大量进展等着我们去取得,而正确的方式是全面提高所有这些维度的标准。比如「可监控性」(monitorability),我们已经看到了清晰的路径——这非常关键,我们正在真正落地。我认为我们有很好的体系、很好的人、很好的过往记录和很好的使命,这些都指向:我们正在以可控的方式构建系统,并且在节奏上一步一步来。 汤普森:格雷格·布罗克曼,祝贺 Astra 发布,迫不及待想用上它了。 布罗克曼:非常感谢,谢谢你的邀请。

← 返回目录

← 返回目录
深读 · 02

大模型高歌猛进,AI 应用却活力不足了

大模型高歌猛进,但AI应用却活力不足了

硅碳变量(虎嗅转载) · 胡一刀 · 2026-09-06 · 约 10 分钟 · 原文链接

导读与要点(建议先读原文)
  • 用户悖论:全球 AI 大盘 MAU 达 18.37 亿(+84.7%)、中国突破 8.51 亿(+81.7%),但月活过百万的头部 AI 应用名单在缩短——渗透在加速,占领却没发生。
  • 标杆失速:Sora 上线半年被 OpenAI 停用;Midjourney 从 a16z 百强榜第 8 跌至 43;MiniMax 星野苹果端日下载从 2 万跌到 7000。
  • 收入断层:Cursor 三年年化收入破 20 亿美元已是 B2B 奇迹,但应用层过亿即优秀;OpenAI 年化收入超 400 亿美元——模型层与应用层差着两个数量级。
  • 吞噬机制:底层模型把能力下放为产品功能(写营销文案从 Jasper 的卖点变成 ChatGPT 的基础能力),超级应用吞并垂类应用;超七成用户一年换过至少三个 AI 工具,理由是「新模型效果更好」而非应用本身。
  • 资本退潮:上半年全球 5100 亿美元创投中 3500 亿流向 AI,OpenAI+Anthropic 独吞 2170 亿;国内大模型融资 1598.53 亿元、占 AI 总融资 52%+;AIGC 单笔融资从 1.21 亿降到 0.85 亿元。
  • 批判性阅读:作者立场偏悲观,数据点多引自公开榜单与财报,可信度较高;但「应用层收缩」的叙事与快览里 Cursor、编程类应用的爆发并存——更准确的表述或许是:通用套壳应用死亡,嵌入真实工作流的应用仍活,分化而非整体消亡。

本文来自微信公众号「硅碳变量」,作者:胡一刀。

8月26日晚间,MiniMax发布了2026年半年度业绩报告,这是MiniMax在港交所上市以来的首份半年报。

上半年,MiniMax营收1.17亿美元,同比增长283.1%,半年超出2025年全年7900万美元营收。期内亏损3.58亿美元,同比收窄11%。整体来看,MiniMax在收入上超出市场预期,而且一个最关键的变化是其增长引擎成功由C端切换到了B端,开放平台及其他基于AI的企业服务占总收入63.4%。

在过去很长一段时间内,这家大模型独角兽常被外界贴上「C端公司」的标签。

而这可以说是模型层与应用层在商业营收上差距越拉越大的一个缩影。过去三年,做底层模型的公司收入已涨到百亿美元以上,可整个AI应用行业,真正收入过亿美元的公司屈指可数。

更关键的是,应用商店里标榜“AI驱动”的独立应用数量仍在增长,但月活用户超过百万的头部产品名单却在不断缩短。

这背后可能是整个中间应用层的发展空间正在缩水。

没有一个AI应用真正占领用户

从宏观视角来看,AI应用的层出不穷已然不断扩大着用户容量。截至2026年3月,海外大盘MAU已攀升至18.37亿,年度同比增长率84.70%;我国更是持续充当全球活跃度拉升的最大绝对增量引擎。2026年3月,中国AI整体MAU强势突破8.51亿大关,年度同比增长率81.71%,季度增长率录得惊人的51.38%。

AI正在以史无前例的加速度完成全球范围的终端下沉,这种渗透速度超过了PC互联网和移动互联网。

可今年以来,一批曾被资本热捧的AI应用,已经陆续退场。比如OpenAI宣布停用上线仅半年的Sora视频生成器,AI模型评测平台Yupp.ai也宣布关停,此外,Google开始收缩内部AI应用线。

更往前看,AI行业第一批爆红的应用独角兽,很多已经涨不动了。最典型的代表是AI生图工具Midjourney,在a16z发布的AI应用百强榜中,Midjourney排名迅速下滑,从最初榜单的第8位跌至第43位;再比如MiniMax旗下的星野,在2025年2月之前苹果端日下载量约2万次,到了4月仅剩约7000次。

除了用户增长,当前AI应用公司普遍面临的一个阶段性矛盾,是产品层面的吸引力虽然得到验证,但将其转化为可持续盈利模式的路径仍不清晰。尤其是将应用层与模型层的商业变现能力一对比,差距可谓惨烈。

举个最直观的例子,AI编程的“顶流”Cursor,它在2025年的年化收入突破20亿美元,仅仅成立三年,堪称B2B史上最快,人均创收超过任何一家硅谷软件公司。再看OpenAI,按OpenAI目前的业务表现推算,其年化收入已超过400亿美元,较2025年底逾200亿美元的水平增加约一倍。

AI应用的收入能达到过亿美元,已经算优秀了,而头部大模型早就跨越百亿美元级别。

过去,业内对应用层的判断是AI应用的渗透以及AI智能体的出现、进化,极有可能成为发展的主流,传统的软件和APP形态或将消失。但截至目前,非但真正的国民级AI应用尚未出现,大部分AI应用也没有展现出远优于传统APP的跨越性、独特的使用体验,让用户愿意迁移过去。

在移动互联网时代,我们能看见,每个成功且留存下来的应用都拥有独特的交互语言、功能设计又或庞大生态。尤其是称得上国民级应用的产品,它们成功嵌入了用户心智,成为满足用户某种需求的“默认选项”,几乎占领了所有网民的手机。

现在的头部AI应用,用户基数是有了,可影响力还不足。

应用层逃不开底层模型的“技术统治”

用户增长缓慢、收入难以突破,再加上迟迟没出现“国民级AI应用”,为什么AI应用生态的发展似乎在收缩?

根据a16z发布的第六版AI应用百强榜,一个突出的变化是超级应用正在“吞并”垂类应用,实际上,更确切的说,应该是底层模型企业的超级应用正在吞噬应用层中垂类应用的原本市场,使自己成为一个的统一AI入口。

比如AI生图工具Midjourney,起初其强大的AI生图功能吸引了众多用户,可随着OpenAI、谷歌等公司把底层模型不断升级的能力下放到产品层面,ChatGPT、Gemini等chatbot类产品功能不断扩张,Midjourney的优势就被削弱了。正如移动互联网时代,垂类APP瞄准特定需求扩大用户体量,一旦综合性平台开始进入这个市场,就直接形成降维打击。

AI写作应用Jasper AI也是这样落寞的。ChatGPT的使用普及,让“生成营销文案”迅速从一个独立应用的核心卖点,变成了大模型的基础能力,用户便没有必要单独下载一个AI应用。

由此可见,整个应用层的发展空间已经被挤压:上游模型厂商掌握核心能力,它们下场做应用层,可以随时把能力下放;下游客户则更看重实效,开始压价格、要效果、看ROI,同时可选供应商越来越多。

而从根本上讲,这是因为目前大部分AI应用并没有打造出自身的核心竞争力,我们看到的是一个新应用,实际上背后真正提供核心能力的,仍然是Gemini、GPT或Claude等头部大模型。

这意味着AI应用好不好用,基本取决于底层模型升级快不快,主动权几乎都掌握在他人手中。

这也是为什么头部AI应用的更迭如此之快。点点数据AI应用先锋下载榜Top10数据显示,相较2026年4月,5月新晋上榜应用多达6款,包括ChatGPT、Piclux、AI Chat、Photo Video maker with music、Kling AI和Pivo AI;仅Refoto、Hailuo AI、VibeShort和Vidix这4款产品连续两个月在榜。

另外,行业调研显示,超过七成的AI应用用户在过去一年中更换过至少三次主要使用的AI工具,且更换理由大多是“听说新的模型效果更好”,而非“新应用解决了老应用做不到的事”。这更直观地说明了AI应用被底层大模型所裹挟的现状。

而且一个更不利的信号是,AI产业的发展重心正在离开应用层,彻底转向模型层,以及可能会直接抹杀AI应用的智能体。

资本没有离开应用层,但热情正在消退

毋庸置疑,AI应用是一个仍在爆发的市场。

据Sensor Tower的数据,2025年生成式AI应用的下载量同比翻倍至38亿次,应用内购买收入接近三倍增长、超过50亿美元。从a16z发布的第六版生成式AI消费应用榜单也能看出,真正退场的,是一批把单点功能包装成独立产品的轻应用,那些嵌入高频场景、占住用户入口、进入真实工作流的应用层产品,依旧存活。

不过,AI应用层正在进入更残酷的商业筛选期,而就目前AI应用的商业变现能力来讲,这无疑是一场严峻的考验。关键是,它考验的不只是初创企业,还有资本的耐心。

2024年,投资界对AI产业的投资被点燃,众多AI应用百花齐放,它们也被投资机构看好,融资明显增加。以美国为例,当时科技媒体Techcrunch整理了获得1亿美元融资的美国AI初创公司,一共39家,融资总额超过244亿美元。其中23家是应用层,占比接近60%,模型层和基础层的公司分别为7家和8家。

但如今大部分热钱从应用层流向了AI基础设施和大模型玩家的口袋。

今年上半年,5100亿美元创投盛宴中,3500亿美元流向AI领域,仅OpenAI与Anthropic双雄就“独吞”2170亿美元。在我国,大模型也是AI融资中最吸金的赛道。根据IT桔子数据,2026年上半年中国大模型赛道融资总额达1598.53亿元,占AI总融资额的52%以上。大模型赛道不仅融资总额最高,单笔融资规模也最大,平均单起融资金额达7.04亿元。

应用层的融资则在缩水。经济参考报引用的报告数据显示,2025年前11个月,AIGC融资事件数创了新高,但单笔融资金额从1.21亿元降到0.85亿元,缩水三成。

“套壳”应用已经逐渐走向死亡,剩下的占据高频场景或者垂直场景的工具类AI应用,虽然积累了大量用户,可留存率依然是个大问题。更重要的是巨额算力的代价与商业化变现的缓慢,已然产生了矛盾。一旦缺少持续的资金涌入,这些AI应用很可能要面临弹尽粮绝的困境。

一位拒绝了AI应用创业者的投资人称,“我们现在已经完全不看搞AI应用创业的了。”在他看来,大模型已经走向全科智能,什么方向都可以变得非常厉害。你花非常大力气研发的一个细分方向的垂直Agent,可能在大模型的下一个迭代里就只是一个小功能。

有些投资人还愿意看,但他们也不愿意下重注。

曾经,我们以为大模型的出现会让应用层最开始爆发,复刻移动互联网应用软件改变大众生活的一幕。但现在,AI应用的身上,并没有展现出颠覆性的价值。“替用户做事”的智能体或许是一个方向,可用户真的能放心把生活和工作交付给AI吗?这是一个永久的疑问。

← 返回目录

← 返回目录
深读 · 03

本周展望:中美 CPI 背靠背,燧原上市倒计时,苹果首款折叠屏

2026 年 9 月 7 日-13 日财经日历与市场展望综合

公开市场信息综合(央广网、东方财富等) · 河马观澜整理 · 2026-09-07 · 约 5 分钟 · 原文链接

导读与要点(建议先读原文)
  • 承接上周:周五放量分歧(沪指跌 0.30% 收 3930,成交重回 2.03 万亿),科技内部「硬件去估值、应用找增量」;非农超预期已让 9 月降息预期降温,本周五美国 CPI 是议息前最后裁决。
  • 国内数据日历:周一(9/7)8 月末外储(7 月末 34188 亿美元)+ 央行 5000 亿元 3 个月买断式逆回购;周二(9/8)8 月贸易数据;周三(9/9)9:30 公布 8 月 CPI/PPI(7 月分别为 +0.5%/-3.5%)。
  • 海外日历:周四(9/10)欧央行利率决议+美国 8 月 PPI;周五(9/11)美国 8 月 CPI——美联储 9/15-16 议息前最后一个重磅通胀数据。
  • 产业日历:周一小米、华为各自新品发布会;周四凌晨 1 点苹果秋发,市场预期 iPhone 18 Pro/Max 与首款折叠屏 iPhone;服贸会(9/9-13 北京)、投洽会(9/8-11 厦门)、外滩大会(9/9-12 上海)密集举行。
  • 市场结构:本周 50 家公司约 849 亿元限售股解禁;燧原科技(688801.SH,发行价 142.18 元、募资 61 亿元)上市公告待发,本周有望挂牌——参照摩尔线程、沐曦首日 +425%、+693%,国产算力链情绪或再被点燃。
  • 口径说明:本文基于公开财经日历与市场信息综合整理,均为观点转述,不构成投资建议。

承接上周:放量分歧之后,等方向。 上周五 A 股放量分歧收官:沪指跌 0.30% 收 3930.12 点,成交重回 2.03 万亿,科技内部「硬件去估值、应用找增量」(浪潮信息跌停 vs 龙版传媒 5 连板)。当晚美国 8 月非农新增 16.2 万远超预期,9 月降息预期明显降温——本周市场就在「内部找方向、外部等数据」的双重悬置中开局。

国内数据日历:周一到周三连轴。 周一(9/7):央行开展 5000 亿元 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作,同日公布 8 月末外汇储备(7 月末为 34188 亿美元,连续 4 个月站上 3.4 万亿美元);周二(9/8):8 月货物贸易进出口数据;周三(9/9)9:30:8 月 CPI/PPI(7 月分别为同比 +0.5%、-3.5%)——价格数据能否延续修复,是「再平衡」叙事的基本面验证。

海外日历:议息前最后一块拼图。 周四(9/10)欧洲央行公布利率决议,美国公布 8 月 PPI;周五(9/11)美国公布 8 月 CPI——这是美联储 9 月 15-16 日议息会议前最后一个重磅通胀数据。非农已经超预期,若 CPI 再偏强,「9 月不降、甚至全年不降」的定价会卷土重来;对 A 股而言,外部分母端扰动的判决日在周五。

产业日历:一周三场发布会+三个大会。 周一(9/7)小米、华为各自举办新品发布会;周四(9/10)凌晨 1 时苹果秋季发布会,市场预期推出 iPhone 18 Pro/Max 及公司首款折叠屏手机——折叠屏产业链(铰链、UTG、面板)是消费电子本周最确定的事件驱动。会展侧:服贸会(9/9-13,北京)、投洽会(9/8-11,厦门)、外滩大会(9/9-12,上海)密集举行,金融科技与出海主题不缺催化。

市场结构:解禁与新股。 本周 50 家公司限售股解禁,合计约 28.82 亿股、市值约 849 亿元(按 9 月 4 日收盘价)。更值得关注的是燧原科技(688801.SH):发行价 142.18 元/股、募资 61.19 亿元,申购已完成,上市公告书待发,本周有望挂牌。参照摩尔线程、沐曦股份上市首日分别 +425%、+693% 的表现,这只「国产 GPU 四小龙」最后一张拼图的落地,可能成为国产算力链情绪的转折点——上周五算力硬件刚经历一轮惨烈去估值,新龙头的定价将测试市场真实温度。

本周观察清单。 一看周三中国 CPI/PPI 与周五美国 CPI 的「背靠背」定价;二看燧原挂牌首日表现对半导体链的情绪传导;三看苹果首款折叠屏对消费电子的拉动;四看成交能否守住 2 万亿。本文基于公开市场信息综合整理,均为复盘与观点转述,不构成投资建议。

← 返回目录